Sonogram images of a child lying amid the debris of a building destroyed a week ago in an Israeli airstrike in central Beirut, Lebanon, April 16, 2026.
Hussain Malla/AP
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Hussain Malla/AP
Tel Aviv, Israel – Three Wars, Three Negotiations.
Israel’s three main conflicts over the past few years – in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza – have now reached a decisive stage of diplomacy. The US, which attacked Iran along with Israel in late February, is playing a central role in the efforts.
As with Lebanon, President Trump has announced that a ten-day ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel will take effect at midnight local time on Friday.
Trump says there are just six days left for the current two-week ceasefire with Iran to expire and peace talks could resume soon. But tensions are rising with the new US economic blockade on Iran.
In the case of Gaza, Trump’s peace board is meeting with Hamas officials this week to convince them to lay down their arms, but Hamas is not ready yet.
Here are some of the takeaways from these talks.
– Iran and America both think they won the war –
Iran faces two powerful armies and, despite weeks of intense bombardment, shows no signs that it is ready to capitulate on the core issues that have divided it from the US and Israel for decades.
The US says it has completed a blockade of Iranian exports through the Strait of Hormuz, aimed at suppressing Iran’s economy by cutting off its main international trade route – and hoping to force Iranian concessions on the negotiating table. But Iran has threatened to impose blockades on other international shipping routes in retaliation, and has threatened to sink American ships if the United States tries to “police” the waterway.
In the view of former Israeli military and government strategist Shai Har-Zavi, Iran will not immediately return to talks, and he says a return to war is possible.
“From an Iranian point of view… they think they’ve had a lot of success (and) have a lot of confidence that they can still stand up to the US and Israel,” Har-Zavi said.
– Netanyahu persuades reluctant Israeli public to accept Lebanon ceasefire –
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces Israeli Jewish people heavy supports According to a recent survey by the nonpartisan Israel Democracy Institute, the fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon will continue, even if it leads to conflict with the United States.
Trump earlier this week asked Netanyahu to reduce Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, which was threatening the success of the US deal with Iran. The US then brokered rare talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington on Tuesday.
“Israel is being dragged, kicking and screaming, into diplomatic initiatives,” he said. shira efronExpert on Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs at the RAND Research Group. “It’s hard for me to see (Netanyahu) willingly doing anything that would lead to a negotiated solution.”
President Trump announced the Lebanon ceasefire on Thursday after speaking by phone with Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.
A day before the ceasefire was announced, Netanyahu was preparing the Israeli public for a ceasefire by presenting the offensive for the village of Bint Jbeil, a key Hezbollah stronghold, as a kind of final battle.
“We are going to overcome Bint Jbeil,” Netanyahu said in a video statement on Wednesday, calling it “the capital of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon” and referring to it as the place where former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a famous speech called Israeli society a weak “spider’s web.”
The ceasefire is expected to remain weak. Israel demands that Lebanon take concrete steps to disarm the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia Muslim group Hezbollah, a move that would set Lebanon up for conflict with its large Shia Muslim population.
“The Lebanese Armed Forces do not have the ability to forcibly take Hezbollah’s weapons, for a very simple reason. If they did, they would find themselves fighting not only a powerful paramilitary force, but its entire community, as it is more likely that the Shias would unite on the side of the party.” Michael Young writes of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
– Gaza disarmament plan will remain on hold –
With the world’s attention focused on Iran and Lebanon, high-level talks have taken place in Cairo this week between top representatives of Hamas and President Trump’s Gaza peace board.
Last month, he proposed surrendering arms to Hamas. This week they are discussing the proposal. The peace board document obtained by NPR calls for Hamas to “decommission” its weapons first.
As proposed, this process would take place in phases in different parts of Gaza in exchange for the reconstruction of the destroyed area.
A Hamas military official in Gaza, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks, said the group is not opposed to disarmament in principle, if it is backed by guarantees.
But before Hamas can discuss disarmament, it wants Israel to maintain commitments from the first phase of the ceasefire, including increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza and increasing the number of Palestinians leaving and entering Gaza.
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told NPR, “As we have said, our position is clear. First, a real foundation of trust must be built through the full implementation of the first phase.” “After this, things will become easier when we discuss the second phase of the agreement.”
Hamas is also waiting to see the outcome of the Iran talks, a second Hamas official told NPR on condition of anonymity to discuss private talks.
Israel could potentially keep troops in Lebanon and Gaza for years.
While negotiations continue with Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, a status quo has become entrenched: Israeli forces have captured large swaths of border land adjacent to Israel in Gaza and Lebanon.
In Lebanon, officials say Israeli evacuation orders have displaced more than a million people, mostly from southern Lebanon. Lebanese officials say Israel has destroyed about 40,000 homes and killed more than 2,000 people. Israel says most of them are Hezbollah fighters. Lebanese officials say more than 180 of those killed were children, but they have not said how many of those killed were fighters.
Israel says it is creating a “buffer zone” in southern Lebanon to direct Hezbollah fire away from Israeli border communities. Israel says five military divisions are inside Lebanon – a huge military presence estimated to include thousands of troops. This is equivalent to the same number of divisions inside Gaza at the height of the war.
This is Israel’s new defense doctrine after being surprised by a Hamas attack in 2023.
“We clearly made a mistake in identifying the intentions of the adversaries. So now we’re just looking at capabilities and potential capabilities,” Efron said. “We are already eliminating adversary capabilities, and we are creating buffer zones to separate our communities – border communities – from adversaries.”
Israel has no intention of withdrawing from Lebanon for months and perhaps years until it sees progress on Hezbollah disarmament, said a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly.
NPR’s Anas Baba in Gaza City and Abu Bakr Bashir in Rotherham, UK, contributed to this report.
