Sudan’s war has entered its fourth year, but there is little sign that the conflict will end soon, as the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) face off for control of the North African nation.
Life has gradually returned to almost normal in the capital Khartoum and central areas after the army regained control of the areas. However, this relative stability has come with a sense of lingering uncertainty, as economic and living conditions continue to deteriorate, the military stalemate in the Kordofan region persists, and the humanitarian crisis in Darfur has worsened.
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On the ground, the conflict has created a clear divide between eastern and western Sudan, with the Sudanese army controlling northern, central and eastern states as well as the capital. Meanwhile, the RSF controls large parts of Darfur and three Kordofan states, and has also opened a new front in the Blue Nile region on the border with Ethiopia.
On May 20 last year, the Sudanese army recaptured Khartoum state from RSF forces after more than two years of fighting, in one of the largest military incidents of the year.
Earlier, on January 11, 2025, the army had also captured Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira state. It then expanded its advance by pushing RSF forces out of northern White Nile state, breaking the siege on El-Obeid in North Kordofan in February 2025, and recapturing Kadugli and Dilling in South Kordofan by last February. The army recaptured Bara, North Kordofan’s second-largest city, in March.
What benefits has RSF received?
Despite the Army’s achievements, the RSF also made significant military advances. Most notable was their capture of Al-Fashar, the capital of North Darfur, on October 26 last year after a two-year siege. This allowed it to consolidate control over most of the territory, except for three northern areas still held by the army and joint forces, as well as areas controlled by the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) armed group led by Abdel Wahid al-Nour.
Encouraged by the fall of al-Fashar, the RSF advanced towards Babanusa in West Kordofan in late December 2025. This occurred shortly before the army withdrew from the country’s largest oil field, the Heglig oil field in West Kordofan, resulting in the state de facto falling under RSF control.
RSF forces are present in scattered areas of North Kordofan, including Umm Qarafa, Jabra al-Sheikh, Umm Badr, Hamra al-Sheikh and Sodari. They are also active in parts of South Kordofan, particularly in Al Quoz, Al-Hamadi and Al Dibibat.
By the end of the third year, the conflict had spread to eastern Sudan. And with joint forces of the RSF and SPLM-North, the town of Kurmuk in Blue Nile state was captured in March last year. This led the Sudanese government to accuse Ethiopia of providing military and logistics support – a charge it has since denied.
The nature of war has also evolved in recent months. The RSF is increasingly relying on drones to attack targets in central and northern Sudan. In response, the army has acquired new drones, which enable it to target supply lines, eliminate several RSF leaders, and destroy their military equipment.
human cost of war
The war on the humanitarian front has reached catastrophic levels. A joint report by the International Committee of the Red Cross, UNICEF and Intersos found that nearly 14 million people had been displaced over three years. Additionally, 26 million people are facing severe food insecurity, while 33.7 million are in need of humanitarian assistance, including 7.4 million who are internally displaced.
The Norwegian Refugee Council reports that deteriorating economic conditions and loss of income have forced most families to cut back on their daily meals.
In Khartoum, prices of fuel, bread, goods and services have risen sharply in recent days. This coincided with the depreciation of the Sudanese pound, with the US dollar now worth about 600 pounds.
Despite some improvements in security in some areas, the International Organization for Migration reports that as of April approximately 3.99 million people had returned to their homes, primarily in Khartoum and Gezira.
Of these, 83 percent are internally displaced people and 17 percent have returned from abroad. More than 13 million people remain displaced or refugees, including approximately 9 million within the country.
in khartoum
The appointment of Kamil al-Tayeb Idris as Prime Minister in May 2025 was a major development politically, as well as the formation of a civilian government.
It is the first such move since the resignation of Abdullah Hamdok in January 2022, following the collapse of political consensus after army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan dissolved the transitional government in 2021. The 2021 coup disrupted the democratic transition process established after the fall of longtime leader Omar al-Bashir in 2019 following a large-scale uprising.
The government officially returned to Khartoum in January this year after operating from Port Sudan as the temporary capital from August 2023. War broke out on April 15, 2023 over a power struggle between the army and the RSF.
Despite this, international and regional efforts to end the war have only stalled.
The Quadrilateral Initiative – the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates – has failed to achieve a breakthrough despite presenting a peace plan in September. Similarly, the Sudanese government’s February 2025 proposal, which was later re-presented to the UN Security Council in December, did not make any concrete progress.
possible scenario
Military researcher Mohammed al-Amin al-Tayeb has described the third year of the war as a state of stagnation, in which neither side could achieve a decisive victory. Weapons continue to flow to the RSF through neighboring countries, while the group is increasingly relying on mercenaries, particularly from South Sudan, amid difficulties in recruiting new fighters.
Al-Tayyeb outlined several possible scenarios for a fourth year. Most notable is the continuation of the military standoff, which is weakening the country, leaving it in a state of uncertainty, with the balance slightly in favor of the military.
Another possibility is a deepening of the administrative and political divisions between eastern and western Sudan, especially as the RSF attempts to establish parallel governance structures. Last July, the RSF-led Sudanese coalition announced the establishment of an alternative government, challenging military-led authorities in Khartoum.
Al-Tayeb also warned of an intensifying proxy war, with regional powers competing within Sudan by supporting rival sides, potentially reshaping the broader regional order. However, growing international and regional pressure could push both sides toward negotiations to prevent the conflict from spilling over into neighboring countries and causing a broader humanitarian and security crisis.
The Middle East is already grappling with the US-Israel war over Iran. Currently, diplomatic efforts are underway to end the war that has created a global energy crisis and roiled the markets.
