{"id":19771,"date":"2026-03-25T07:33:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T07:33:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/2026\/03\/25\/traffic-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-be-normal-for-months-kalshi-speculators\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T07:33:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T07:33:10","slug":"traffic-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-be-normal-for-months-kalshi-speculators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/2026\/03\/25\/traffic-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-be-normal-for-months-kalshi-speculators\/","title":{"rendered":"Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not be normal for months: Kalshi speculators"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n

Line of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates on March 11, 2026.<\/p>\n

Altaf Qadri AP<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Prediction market speculators are not confident that a key oil route into the Middle East will reopen in the next few weeks, despite some hope that the US and Iran could find a way out of the war.<\/p>\n

Tanker traffic likely to continue in the Strait of Hormuz “return to normal”<\/a> Up to 25% off at Kalshi before April 15th. However, by June 1 the chances drop to more than 67%, and by July 1 to 76%. <\/p>\n

Kalshi defines a return to normal as the seven-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls tracked by IMF Portwatch reaching 60. Approximately $100,000 has been wagered on the market. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

The Strait of Hormuz \u2013 through which about 20% of the world’s crude oil transited before the war \u2013 has become a flash point of conflict. Iran has effectively halted trade between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea in response to US-Israeli military attacks, including the killing of its supreme leader on February 28, the day before the airstrike.<\/p>\n

President Trump said Monday that the strait could reopen “very soon” as part of his plan to delay attacks on the Iranian energy grid for five days in hopes of striking a deal with the Islamic Republic. Trump said he and Iranian officials could share joint control of the strait.<\/p>\n

“They very much want to make a deal. We would also like to make a deal,” Trump told reporters in Florida.<\/p>\n

If free passage through the strait is not decided, “we will just keep getting our little hearts bombed,” he said.<\/p>\n

Trump’s comments came shortly after an earlier social media post on Monday that said the US and Iran were engaged in “productive” talks. Stocks surged in response, as Wall Street lauded any perceived progress toward a ceasefire in the war, now in its fourth week, which has sent US stocks tumbling and oil prices sharply higher. <\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average