{"id":33501,"date":"2026-04-01T10:18:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T10:18:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/2026\/04\/01\/will-california-elect-a-gop-governor-democrats-are-nervous\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T10:18:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T10:18:30","slug":"will-california-elect-a-gop-governor-democrats-are-nervous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/2026\/04\/01\/will-california-elect-a-gop-governor-democrats-are-nervous\/","title":{"rendered":"Will California elect a GOP governor? democrats are nervous"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

Today we discuss plausibility, self-destruction, and political hegemony.<\/p>\n

Very good. California, which is absolutely blue <\/b>Lake Tahoe<\/b>is about to <\/b>elect a republican governor<\/b>! How crazy is that?<\/b><\/p>\n

Wow! Wait, pony. Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. <\/p>\n

Well, there definitely is <\/b>a lot of democratic anger<\/b> out there.<\/b><\/p>\n

that’s for sure. It was reminiscent of the panic in Atlanta after Joe Biden’s poor debate performance, the worst disaster to hit the city since a 2009 flood that caused more than half a billion dollars in damage. <\/p>\n

In California, the high concern is the result of the state’s “jungle” primary, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party, with the top two finishers advancing to the November runoff. With so many Democrats contesting the election, there is a real possibility that their partisan support will break down, resulting in the leading GOP candidates \u2013 Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton \u2013 securing both slots and moving on to June 2.<\/p>\n

What are the chances of this happening?<\/b><\/p>\n

I can’t say. And Nostradamus is on spring break.<\/p>\n

But Paul Mitchell, one of California’s leading political pundits, has developed A useful online tool<\/a> To explore possibilities. Visitors to their site have run thousands of simulations, which currently put the chances of a Democratic freeze-out at about 17% to 20%.<\/p>\n

Which suggests that it is not likely. But it is not impossible either.<\/p>\n

Why don’t some Democrats step aside for the good of the party?<\/b><\/p>\n

It is easy for you to say this.<\/p>\n

Anyone who is putting himself forward in search of public office must have a certain amount of confidence both in his abilities and in the prospect of good fortune smiling upon him. (Luck is a much less important factor in political success.)<\/p>\n

Clearly, no one is running from the governorship race. For all the talk of Republicans “leading” in the polls, it’s more like a four- or five-way tie for first place, when you take into account the margin of error. And 20% support \u2013 which is approximately what the top candidate gets in the surveys \u2013 is hardly a number to strike fear in the hearts of rivals.<\/p>\n

There is also the YOLO factor in it.<\/p>\n

you mean<\/b> County just outside Sacramento<\/b>?<\/b><\/p>\n

No, that’s YOLO. <\/p>\n

I mean, YOLO – like you only live once<\/p>\n

Several candidates who have reached the bottom of the polls \u2014 Antonio Villaraigosa, Xavier Becerra, Betty Yee \u2014 are probably looking at the end of the line if they lose this race. So you can understand, if not necessarily agree, his reluctance to leave the studies and finish it, in the hope that, perhaps, that proverbial bolt of lightning will strike.<\/p>\n

so why not anyone Force<\/i> Will some candidates be left out?<\/b><\/p>\n

Like what? There is no Tammany Hall. This isn’t Chicago under Boss Daley. Modern California has never had that kind of all-powerful political machine.<\/p>\n

The closest approximations were in San Francisco, where brothers Phil and John Burton had great influence, and in Los Angeles, where another pair of siblings, Howard and Michael Berman, along with their compatriot, Henry Waxman, wielded enormous influence. But his influence was mainly limited to Congress, Legislature and local politics. He was no kingmaker when it came to choosing California’s governor.<\/p>\n

And the two major political parties, which never wielded the power they enjoyed in other states, have become even less influential in this entrepreneurial age of politics, when candidates raise their money online and raise their profiles by going on political chat shows on TV.<\/p>\n

about what <\/b>Gavin Newsom<\/b>?<\/b><\/p>\n

The governor may certainly try to weaken the Democratic field. But in the process he would risk humiliating himself and damaging his presidential prospects.<\/p>\n

how come?<\/b><\/p>\n

It would be a shame if Republicans capture the governorship on Newsom’s watch. (At least among political insiders who pay attention to such things.) It would also be a shame if the governor tried and failed to push the candidates aside.<\/p>\n

It’s not at all clear that Newsom will have much influence. He is not particularly close to any candidate contesting the elections. No one needed his blessing to enter the race, or his support to maintain his candidacy. And there isn’t much that a term-limited governor, who is playing out his final months in office, can offer in the way of incentive to step down.<\/p>\n

Newsom will also have to consider how it will look if he tries to address the laggards \u2014 whose ranks include all the major candidates of color: Becerra, Villaraigosa, Yee and the state superintendent. Public Instruction Tony Thurmond. <\/p>\n

We saw how that worked out for USC, which abruptly canceled a scheduled debate after a storm of criticism over its selection process and the exclusion of those four candidates.<\/p>\n

Would Newsom care to veto Thurmond and others, then defend their actions in South Carolina, where black voters typically constitute more than half of the Democratic primary electorate?<\/p>\n

It seems Newsom doesn’t have many good options.<\/b><\/p>\n

No.<\/p>\n

Speaking of options, is there anything the Democrats can do if they lose out on the runoffs?<\/b><\/p>\n

Such as?<\/p>\n

Running a write-in campaign in the fall?<\/b><\/p>\n

No. Under California law, write-in candidates are only allowed in the primary. <\/p>\n

Hmm. How about a Democrat running as an independent?<\/b><\/p>\n

No. Same rule applies. Only the two candidates who received the most votes in June will appear on the November ballot.<\/p>\n

So what can do<\/i> Do the Democrats?<\/b><\/p>\n

The hope is that their voters will rally around a single candidate, or Bianco or Hilton will move far enough with GOP voters that there is room for a Democrat to finish in the top two.<\/p>\n

Failing that, get ready for a Democratic-led recall campaign in early 2027.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today we discuss plausibility, self-destruction, and political hegemony. Very good. California, which is absolutely blue Lake Tahoeis about to elect a republican governor! How crazy is that? Wow! Wait, pony. Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Well, there definitely is a lot of democratic anger out there. that’s for sure. It was reminiscent of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[747,459,4138,326,648,216],"class_list":["post-33501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bible-verse","tag-california","tag-democrats","tag-elect","tag-gop","tag-governor","tag-nervous"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33501"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33501\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33505,"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33501\/revisions\/33505"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/christiancorner.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}