President Donald Trump’s redistricting battle now hinges on Florida \u2014 and his one-time primary rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis.<\/p>\n
The Sunshine State GOP has potentially its best chance to make a dent in maintaining its House majority, as voters approved a gerrymander in Virginia that would allow Democrats to pick up four new seats.<\/p>\n
Now all eyes are on Florida to introduce a new map that could give the party three to five seats, with legislators scheduled to hold a special session next week. National and state Republicans are counting on DeSantis to deliver on White House priorities and ensure that their nine-month redistricting battle does not end in vain.<\/p>\n
“This is honestly a do-it-all moment, because if you lose the House, you will essentially grind the agenda to a halt,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based GOP strategist. “(DeSantis) does this right, and it could rebirth his political career.”<\/p>\n
DeSantis reached the governor’s mansion with the help of timely Trump support during the 2018 cycle and became a rising Republican star during the Covid-19 pandemic, leading him to challenge the president in the 2024 election. The two reconciled after Trump’s victory, but they did not always get along well.<\/p>\n
“All eyes are now on Ron DeSantis and Florida. It’s a little poetic,” said one Republican operative who, like others in this article, has been granted anonymity to speak candidly. “DeSantis has his marching orders: Take the gloves off like the Democrats in Virginia and California and draw as many districts as legally possible for Republicans.”<\/p>\n
Any redistricting effort in Florida is bound to run into political and legal hurdles. DeSantis first began clamoring for mid-decade redistricting last summer \u2014 around the same time the White House began pushing lawmakers in Texas to take action. Since then, Trump’s popularity has declined and backlash over the high cost of living and his ongoing war in Iran has complicated the Republicans’ midterm outlook.<\/p>\n
A Florida GOP operative familiar with the governor’s thinking \u2014 granted anonymity because he is not authorized to speak publicly \u2014 said DeSantis “would still like to do something on redistricting. But he knows the tone is already set for the 2026 election and it will be difficult for Republicans to keep the House no matter what happens in Florida.”<\/p>\n
There are also legal questions over how far DeSantis and GOP lawmakers in Florida can go in redrawing the map, raising doubts about whether they can actually accomplish it. The state has strict restrictions on redrawing congressional districts for partisan gain, or to help or hurt incumbents. Democrats argue that any effort to redraw the maps is illegal and would violate this constitutional prohibition.<\/p>\n
For his part, DeSantis has pushed his congressional map before, which is a key reason why national Republicans hope he can do it again.<\/p>\n
In 2022, his new map helped Republicans gain a 20\u20138 lead and ultimately gain four seats \u2014 an accomplishment that DeSantis has argued was crucial in helping the GOP regain the House majority at the time. That map was able to withstand legal challenges, but with House control again under threat, a redrawn map is now certain to face a flurry of lawsuits. One factor in the governor’s favor is that state and federal courts may be reluctant to order a new map so close to the midterms and may leave Florida’s map in place for now.<\/p>\n
DeSantis has argued that the previous US census effort was flawed and that it took away at least one congressional seat from the state. They also pointed to ongoing population growth following the COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S. Supreme Court’s pending decision in the Louisiana redistricting case that could force changes to the map.<\/p>\n
He had already pointed to one district \u2014 which was held by Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilas-McCormick until she resigned under pressure this past Tuesday \u2014 that should be redrawn.<\/p>\n
But the governor, who has already delayed the special session by a week, has yet to publicly release a map with just days left before the session begins. Legislative leaders have said it is up to DeSantis to keep the effort on track.<\/p>\n
State House Speaker Daniel Perez, a Miami Republican, said, “By the time we get to Tallahassee, I’m sure there will be a map there and the body will consider it at the right time.”<\/p>\n
Some Republicans in Congress, who were skeptical about moving forward with redistricting, said the Virginia results would have made it necessary for the GOP to react quickly.<\/p>\n
“I don’t like this redistricting in the middle of the census, but given what Virginia is doing, we may need to respond to it,” said Florida Republican Representative John Rutherford, who has previously warned against Florida redistricting.<\/p>\n
Still, others are worried that the aggressive plan could backfire.<\/p>\n
Alex Alvarado, a well-known Florida political consultant who has worked with many prominent Republicans, recently published an analysis suggesting that a new map would backfire for the GOP given the current political climate. He suggested that this would have no net gain for Republicans and would allow Democrats to win back seats.<\/p>\n
“We’ve already crammed the Democrats into such tight districts that the only thing you can do when you’re redistricting is cut them out of there,” Alvarado said in an interview. \u201cYou have to put those Democratic voters somewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n
Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, also cautioned against expectations of sweeping gains due to the state’s “Fair Districts” provisions, which ban partisan redistricting.<\/p>\n
“I don’t think you’re going to create deep-seated seats across the state,” he said. “I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what the legislature produces.”<\/p>\n
Democrats are already warning they will create problems for DeSantis. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Wednesday he will target Florida and “end” the redistricting war started by Trump.<\/p>\n
“Our message to Florida Republicans is ‘F’ and find out,” he told reporters.<\/p>\n
DeSantis wasn’t worried during a bill signing ceremony in Jacksonville<\/p>\n
“‘We’re going to go after Florida.’ Please, be my guest,\u201d DeSantis said of Jeffries. \u201cI\u2019ll pay you to come to Florida and preach. I’ll put you up in the Florida Governor’s mansion. We’ll take you fishing. We’ll do all this work.”<\/p>\n
For DeSantis, the consequences of the mapping move are as much personal as they are political. His second term ends in January, and he is believed to once again have his sights set on ambitions beyond the Sunshine State.<\/p>\n
A second Republican strategist said, “If he can do that, it would at least give him a chance to get back into Trump’s good graces, and perhaps even give him a higher profile in the broader Republican movement.”<\/p>\n
For now, the White House is content to let him lead \u2014 at least, publicly.<\/p>\n
Trump political director James Blair, a Florida native and former deputy chief of staff to DeSantis, said Wednesday that he is not involved in the Florida map-drawing process. “If (DeSantis) wants to move forward, he’ll draft them in a way that’s consistent with the law and we’ll see what happens,” he said on CNN.<\/p>\n
He said, “I don’t talk to the governor, I haven’t talked to those guys about it. But again… I think their track record shows they know how to draw maps in compliance with Florida law and the Florida Constitution, and we’ll see what they do next week.”<\/p>\n
Mia McCarthy, Gregory Swirnowski, Riley Rogerson and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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