Bangkok– A little more than a year ago, the government’s forces were on the backfoot myanmar Due to the bloody civil war, they were pushed out of large parts of the north of the country by a coalition of veteran militias, and forced into defensive action in the rest of the country by other established groups and new pro-democracy guerrillas.
Today the picture has changed.
With thousands of new soldiers swelling its ranks, the army, known as the Tatmadaw, has reversed some of its losses and looks ready to resume the offensive, while some opposition groups have given up the fight and infighting and supply issues have weakened others.
“I think we’re getting closer to a tipping point here, where the Tatmadaw is going to reassert itself and the resistance movement is going to collapse,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, which runs the International Institute for Strategic Studies. myanmar conflict map Project.
Still, he said, even if the broader resistance movement that has grown since the military seized power falters, the conflict is no closer to ending.
“Armed resistance in Myanmar will always continue until a comprehensive, negotiated political solution is found, but the Tatmadaw has regained the strategic initiative and everything is in the Tatmadaw’s favor.”
Meanwhile, after five years of fighting that has left thousands dead, including about 8,000 civilians, and displaced millions from their homes, there is a general fatigue among both Tatmadaw-fighting forces and the general population, said Aung Thu Nyein, a Myanmar political analyst who now works in neighboring Thailand.
“Many people are saying that the local population doesn’t care much about who wins the war, but (just) they want to stop fighting,” he said in a text message.
Myanmar, also known as Burma, is also under intense pressure for stability from China, which is an important source of rare earth elements and other natural resources, to ensure that Mines and other operations He said, it is safe.
Beijing has invested billions of dollars in Myanmar’s mines, oil and gas pipelines and other infrastructure and is a major arms supplier to the Tatmadaw, along with Russia.
It also has a significant influence on paramilitary groups operating in the border areas with China, many of whose members are ethnically Chinese.
China initially supported October 27, 2023, Offensive against the Tatmadaw by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, largely to the chagrin of Beijing, which was allowed by the military-run government organized crime operations To spread in border areas. But it has since blocked the supply of arms and ammunition to the militias and pressured them to end fighting.
Of the Three Brotherhood Alliance members, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Tang National Liberation Army both agreed to ceasefires following Chinese-brokered talks last year, leaving the Arakan Army as the only member still actively fighting the Tatmadaw in the western state of Rakhine.
The Brotherhood Alliance members are all long-standing paramilitary groups organized around ethnic minority lines known as Ethnic Armed Organizations or EAOs. Suu Kyi’s ouster has also given rise to pro-democracy militias, known as the People’s Defense Forces, or PDF, many of which are affiliated with the shadow national unity government, organized by former members of Suu Kyi’s party and others.
Given the anticipated intensity of attacks by the Tatmadaw, top-level coordination of resistance operations is needed by the EAO, established in conjunction with the NUG, the Burma Liberation Democratic Front, a pro-democracy group fighting in the Sagaing and Mandalay regions, told The Associated Press.
“Although there is a shared understanding of the need to overthrow the military dictatorship and move toward a future federal union, there are still gaps and differences in the overall grand strategy and tactics,” the group told the AP in written responses to questions.
“There are still differences in positions, viewpoints and approaches. Many hold on to ethnic, regional and organizational interests and affiliations.”
The group, which is part of a coalition of 20 PDFs, said the Tatmadaw was actively attempting to “divide and weaken the situation by creating divisions between the masses and the revolutionary forces, between different ethnic groups and even between revolutionary groups.”
Military officials who ousted the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021 also recently successfully held elections, even though they were criticized by UN experts as neither free nor fair to the opposition. Min Aung HlaingWho led the country harshly as a senior army general after Suu Kyi was ousted from power took oath as President earlier this month.
Politically, the election appears to be a veiled effort to add a mantle of legitimacy to his regime to help improve relations with Southeast Asian neighbors and others as Myanmar struggles under international sanctions.
China, which was pushing for the election, immediately and immediately congratulated Min Aung Hlaing sent his foreign minister To meet them in person. The TNLA militia group also sent congratulatory messages, promising to maintain the ceasefire, which China helped broker.
Michaels said the conclusion of the election also freed up more troops that had been used for extensive security at the election.
In one of his first acts as president, Min Aung Hlaing Country’s armed resistance forces invited for new peace talksWhich includes both EAO and PDF. No mention was made of the National Unity Government, which immediately condemned the proposal, saying it aimed “to prolong the subjugation of the people under military rule.”
The vague offer, reported in Myanmar’s state-run Global New Light, said groups have until July 31 to participate in discussions, with the warning that they should not come with “unrealistic demands.”
There was no mention of what might happen if the groups declined to participate in the process, and the government did not respond to an email requesting comment.
Meanwhile, the Tatmadaw has continued its attacks, including launching a large-scale offensive into Sagaing to try to recapture the northern town of Indaw, which was captured by PDF groups with support from the Kachin Independence Army EAO last year.
Also, it is in a defensive position in the east as it tries to stop an attack by the Karen National Liberation Army towards the Tatmadaw stronghold near the Thai border.
With the offer of talks, it seems Min Aung Hlaing is hoping to revive the nationwide ceasefire agreement made by previous governments nearly a decade ago with about half of Myanmar’s EAOs, which helped bring relative peace.
But with little interest at the moment, a more limited ceasefire may be the immediate goal, Michaels said.
He said, “In the short term if you can agree to a ceasefire with some groups, you can redirect your resources towards other groups who are either not willing to agree to a ceasefire or with whom the Tatmadaw is not willing to agree to a ceasefire.”
“The Tatmadaw can always accept some degree of opposition and indeed needs some level of active armed resistance to justify its rule and justify its behaviour. But the current level of armed resistance across the country is not acceptable.”
