Estimates suggest this Nearly 28 million people in Afghanistan could be living in poverty in 2025The situation has been further complicated by large-scale population withdrawal, worsening drought conditions, and reduced international aid.
While Afghanistan recorded economic growth for the second consecutive year, real gross domestic product is projected to grow by only 1.9 percent in 2025, down from 2.3 percent the previous year. However, population growth reached 6.5 percent, resulting in an estimated 2.1 percent decline in real GDP per capita.
UNDPreport of, Afghanistan Socio-Economic Reviewfound that the share of Afghans facing subsistence insecurity remained largely unchanged, but an additional 1.4 million people were pushed into hardship after the return of 2.9 million Afghans through 2025.
‘The country is under increasing tension’
Millions of families are struggling to access essentials, including water, food, health care, shelter, heating and clothing. More than 80 percent of families are in debtWhile almost three quarters of people rely on negative coping strategies to get through the day.
“Taking stock of Afghanistan’s socioeconomic reality, this year’s report shows that the country is under increasing stress,” said Kanni Vignarajah, UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific.
The scale of returns has added further pressure. Nearly 5 million Afghans are set to return to the country by 2023, many coming to communities already facing severe economic hardship.
According to UNDP, 92 percent of the recently returned people said that they are unable to procure essential things for life.Compared to 74 percent nationally. In the provinces with the largest number of returnees, only 3 percent have formal employment, while 78 percent rely on casual day labor.
Climate shocks and restrictions on women
The report also highlights worsening climate conditions, with 64 percent of the country affected by drought last year. Access to adequate drinking water declined sharply, from 59 percent to 44 percent in 2024.
At the same time, the ongoing restrictions on women and girls are further weakening Afghanistan’s economy and labor force.
Nearly 100 decrees issued by Taliban officials remain in force as of 2021, limiting women’s access to employment, education and freedom of movement..
from afghanistan Trade deficit also increased to a record 11.3 billion dollars In 2025, equivalent to about 60 percent of nominal GDP, due to rising imports and stable exports.
Aid cuts are worsening humanitarian pressures
Declining international aid is exacerbating the crisis. Total international aid to Afghanistan fell by 16.5 percent in 2025, while needs continued to grow.
More than 440 clinics were forced to close or reduce services due to lack of funding, causing the proportion of people unable to access health care to rise from 16 percent in 2024 to 23 percent in 2025.
“Across Afghanistan, communities need more than short-term relief. They need a path to progress,”said Stephen Rodrigues, UNDP Resident Representative in Afghanistan.
“Investing in jobs, services and local markets will help boost the domestic economy and is essential to give people a real chance to rebuild their lives and regain control over their future.“
