SpaceX continues to develop orbital data centers that will support its artificial intelligence expansion efforts, yet experts believe these facilities will face the same obstacles that caused Microsoft to shut down its underwater research project.
The proposal, unveiled alongside a potential IPO, involves launching a million satellites to power AI systems in space, with the goal of alleviating Earth’s energy and water shortages.
Microsoft uses early warnings
Microsoft tested a similar concept through its Project Natick, which installed data centers on the ocean floor to reduce cooling costs and utilize renewable energy. The project achieved its technical objectives but needed to be stopped because there was insufficient market interest and the financial performance of the project was unsatisfactory.
A Microsoft spokesperson explained that the project serves as a research platform that does not provide any commercial applications as it shows that potential business operations are not yet profitable.
Experts believe SpaceX’s orbital data centers will face more significant challenges than their current problems. Roy Chua, principal analyst at Avidthink, explained that three major challenges, including the vacuum cooling system and radiation risks and expensive launch costs, will create operational difficulties.
Unlike land-based data centers, underwater and space-based data centers are based on sealed, modular systems that cannot be repaired or upgraded. This is in contrast to the rate of development of AI chip technology, which may become obsolete in a few years.
Analysts at MoffettNathanson estimate that deploying one million AI satellites would cost trillions of dollars. For this model to work, the cost of launching satellites would have to come down significantly. Tim Farrar, president of TMF Associates, said the question is, can it compete with ground-based systems at a lower cost?
While companies like Blue Origin are also exploring orbital computing, most experts believe the concept will remain niche. Claude Rousseau, director of research at Annalies Masson, said space data centers are more likely to support infrastructure in orbit rather than replace Earth-based systems.
Even Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang has questioned the economics, saying that computing on Earth is more practical right now. Analyzing,
