World could miss UN child mortality target by five years

A new study tracking global progress on child mortality shows the world will fall at least five years behind a key United Nations (UN) health target at current rates, with the burden falling heavily on sub-Saharan Africa. The findings were published this week in the open-access journal one more By Min Liu of Peking University, Beijing, China, and colleagues.

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 calls for all countries to reduce the under-five mortality rate to less than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. As the deadline approaches, there has been no comprehensive assessment of where countries stand.

In the new study, researchers used United Nations data to analyze the number and mortality rates of annual under-five deaths from 1990 to 2023 in 200 countries and territories. They calculated the rate of change in death rates over time and used those trends to estimate when countries still above the target range would be expected to reach it.

The researchers found that globally, deaths among children under five declined by 63% during the study period – from about 13 million in 1990 to 4.78 million in 2023 – and mortality rates declined by an average of 3.18% per year. However, the global rate still stands at 36.72 deaths per 1,000 live births, well above the SDG target, and is not projected to reach the target until 2035. 133 countries have already met the target and 9 more are on track to do so by 2030. However, 58 countries will miss the deadline, including 25 that are not projected to reach the target until after 2050, and Dominica, where deaths among children under five years of age are highest. Have got up. More than four-fifths of all under-five deaths worldwide are concentrated in just two regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, where the mortality rate remains at 68.82 deaths per 1,000 live births and is not projected to meet the SDG target until 2055, and Central and Southern Asia.

The study is limited by the assumption that trends over the past two decades will remain unchanged. Data quality was also poor in some conflict-affected areas and low-income countries, the same places where child mortality rates are highest.

The authors conclude that to meet the UN’s goals, policymakers must focus on scaling up proven interventions in every community, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa – including efficient birth attendance, postnatal care, immunization, improved nutrition and treatment of common childhood diseases.