Washington DC – As the clock approaches US President Donald Trump’s “deadline” for Iran, analysts warn that further action could prolong and escalate the conflict with the Middle Eastern country and that a quick victory for the United States is unlikely.
Trump is stepping up his threats, warning that US forces will destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges as well as other critical civilian infrastructure as the US-Israel war over Iran enters its sixth week.
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Naveed Shah, political director of Common Defense, an advocacy group led by US military veterans, said that if the already ongoing regional war is not ended soon, “there is no end to how far this will spread”.
“Attacking infrastructure will not end this war quickly. If anything happens, it will make it last longer. And what we need to do is find an off-ramp, declare some kind of victory and find a way out,” Shah told Al Jazeera.
Iran, which has been attacking Gulf states since the beginning of the war, has warned of serious retaliation if its civilian infrastructure is attacked. Analysts say Tehran could target energy and power facilities across the region, which could send oil and gas prices higher.
Many Iranian officials have refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Trump’s threats.
Brian Finucane, an analyst at the International Crisis Group and former adviser to the US State Department, said that apart from being illegal, attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran are unlikely to help Trump achieve his goals – namely, reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
“It’s hard to see this giving the United States any quick wins,” Finucane said.
“I also do not see accusing Iran of war crimes and further mass destruction as somehow automatically opening the strait. Instead, it is likely to prompt retaliation by Iran against regional energy infrastructure.”
‘Gas prices even higher’
The supply pressure from the closure of Hormuz is being felt in the US, where petrol prices have risen from less than $3 before the war to more than $4.11 per gallon (3.8 litres).
“The President is really worried about the economic consequences of this unnecessary war, including particularly high gas prices,” Finucane told Al Jazeera.
“Well, escalating attacks against Iran and then escalating attacks by Iran against its neighbors is a recipe for driving gas prices even higher.”
Trump has set a “final” deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face widespread destruction at 8 pm (00:00 GMT) on Tuesday in Washington, DC.
The US President threatened that “the entire civilization will die” after the deadline passed.
Earlier on Tuesday, Qatar, which was targeted by Iran, had warned that no one would benefit from prolonging the war.
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Majid al-Ansari said an “uncontrolled” escalation could escalate the conflict to the point where it cannot be controlled.
“The violation of our sovereignty by Iran cannot be explained or justified in any way,” al-Ansari told reporters.
“Continuing this war in this way will only mean greater costs for the people of the region, for international peace and security, for the international economy, for international energy markets, and there are no winners in the continuation of this war.”
Although a diplomatic breakthrough cannot be ruled out in the coming hours, the Israeli military began targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure ahead of the deadline on Tuesday, saying it bombed railways and at least eight bridges across the country.
Trump’s threats
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Trump’s more threats and attacks would lead to more resistance from Iran.
“Iran has not surrendered because of maximum pressure since President Trump’s first term. In fact, it has produced exactly the opposite result, what Iranians call maximum resistance, and that’s why we are here,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
In 2018, Trump canceled the multilateral agreement that required Iran to scale back its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions against its economy. Since then, the US has been imposing economic sanctions against Iran.
In June 2025, Israel starts a war against Iran and the US joins in and attacks the country’s nuclear facilities.
But Tehran insists on its right to enrich uranium domestically as part of a civilian nuclear program and rejects discussion over the limits of its missile development.
Tehran has refused to accede to Washington’s demands, even after US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials in a spate of violence.
Days before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, Trump aide Steve Witkoff said the US president was “curious” as to why Tehran had not “surrendered” amid Washington’s military buildup in the region.
Now Trump is once again raising the stakes and threatening not only to kill Iran’s leaders and bomb its military capabilities, but to destroy the country itself.
Mortazavi said Trump thinks all parties have “a range of threats and pressure” that will push them to concede defeat.
“I don’t think this next level of escalation will achieve what he wants, which is complete capitulation and surrender,” Mortazawi told Al Jazeera.
