China is walking a diplomatic tightrope, balancing between Tehran and Washington. Beijing is pushing for peace efforts to end the Iran conflict as it looks forward to a high-level summit with President Donald Trump in May.
China’s meeting with Trump in mid-May is set to determine how the country will deal with the Middle East crisis in the coming months. The world’s second-largest economy is heavily dependent on the Middle East for half of its fuel and wants to protect its energy supply chains.
While maintaining a modified stance on the conflict, China has maintained substantial back-channel influence, which President Trump recently credited Beijing with facilitating Iran’s participation in peace talks held in Pakistan last weekend.
According to Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project, an independent organization, “You may have heard President Trump mention repeatedly how the Chinese talked to the Iranians. It puts them in the room with negotiators, even if it doesn’t have a seat at the table.”
Against the backdrop of Trump’s transactional approach, China is trying to advance its targets on trade and particularly Taiwan during the much-awaited summit, sources close to the matter said.
The dominant approach in Beijing is to “butter him, welcome him on the red carpet and maintain strategic stability,” one source said.
Since the blockade of Iranian ports by US naval forces, China has engaged in diplomatic activities to defuse the Middle Eastern crisis, while refraining from strongly criticizing Trump’s conduct of the war.
On Tuesday, Xi Jinping urged the international community to uphold national sovereignty, peaceful coexistence, international rule of law and global security.
According to some analysts, China’s diplomatic efforts regarding the Middle East are “more theater than statecraft”.
Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution said, “While the Iranians are keen to maintain their relationship with China and have asked Beijing to act as a guarantor of the ceasefire, Beijing has shown no interest in playing such a role.”
“As the United States bears the brunt of the pressure, Beijing is content to remain on the sidelines,” Kim said.
Singapore’s S. Drew Thompson, senior fellow at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, explained that Beijing’s ideal outcome revolves around maintaining unconditional but attractive relations with anti-Western countries like Iran, as well as preserving the opportunity for an arrangement with the US.
Talking about the highly anticipated Xi-Trump summit, some experts highlight the narrowly focused nature of the meeting. Leaders are expected to avoid topics related to market access, AI governance and manufacturing capacity.
“There is no chance that China will reach any kind of major deal with the United States,” said Scott Kennedy, trustee chair of China trade and economics at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
