A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, United States, on April 23, 2026.
Jinnah Moon reuters
Something interesting is happening in the options market.
S&P 500 Touched a record high on Thursday morning, but Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) It’s stuck near 20 and is up from five days ago, when the S&P was trading nearly 100 points lower.
In other words, stocks went up and the market’s so-called fear gauge also went up.
Cboe Volatility Index, 1 Month
The VIX and S&P move together about 20% of the time, but if a ‘VIX-up/Stock-up’ environment persists for more than a few days, it means there are likely things going on beneath the surface of the market.
One explanation is simply that investors are wary of new highs in stocks and avoiding risks like the Iran war and crude oil. If this is the case, traders should be wary of near-term declines in the index as realized volatility is “catching up” to the VIX.
Another explanation
A more bullish explanation – which fits with what we see in options trading around earnings – is that traders are willing to buy expensive premiums into upside calls on single stocks that are making big moves, particularly in semiconductors and tech names that are leading the rally.
Total call premium in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) The put is 25% larger than the put despite the volume being higher.
make a trade in chip stock Marvel Technology For example. The stock has already doubled since last month’s earnings, but one trader who spent $2.4 million to buy about 1,700 contracts expiring on June 18 at a $180 strike expects another 10% rally from here.
Marvell Technology, 1 Month
This enthusiasm is driving up options prices, which may help explain why the VIX is so sticky.
