Rome — Rome (AP) – from Italy conservative prime minister giorgia melloni He faces a key political test in a two-day referendum starting Sunday on judicial reform, a vote that has turned into a broader judgment on his leadership at home and abroad.
Originally presented as a technical overhaul of the justice system, the reform has sharpened political divisions and united the centre-left opposition, turning the referendum into a symbolic demonstration of Meloni’s strength a year before national elections.
Recent polls show the race is still close to decided, with the “No” camp gaining momentum of late in a polarized environment where turnout could prove decisive.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and polling expert at YouTrend, said rejection of the reform would carry significant political weight.
“A potential ‘no’ victory would send a political signal, undermining Meloni’s aura of invincibility, while forcing the center-left opposition to say the country already has an alternative,” he told The Associated Press.
Meloni initially avoided linking her image to the referendum, wary of the danger that defeat might weaken her domestically and abroad.
Having gained credibility among her European colleagues as a charismatic leader, she currently presides over Italy’s most stable government in years. A referendum victory would strengthen his international standing as well as his domestic tenure.
That is why, as the vote approached and the polls tightened, the Italian Prime Minister changed tactics and fully embraced the “Yes” campaign.
Meloni has stepped up his rhetoric, accusing parts of the judiciary of obstructing government work on migration and security, and warning that failure to pass reform will strengthen irresponsible judicial “factions” and endanger the safety of citizens.
“If the reform doesn’t pass this time, we probably won’t have a second chance,” he said at a campaign event last week. “We will find ourselves with even more powerful factions, even more negligent judges, even more unrealistic sentences, immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers being let free and your safety at risk.”
His stern warnings have drawn sharp criticism from magistrates and the centre-left, who argue that the reforms would destroy judicial independence and undermine constitutional guarantees.
Analysts say the referendum also has international implications.
Meloni has a long standing relationship with US President Donald TrumpWhat was once politically advantageous has now become problematic due to his foreign policy – particularly America and Israel’s war with Iran – Facing increasing rejection among Italians.
“Meloni faces what I would call ‘Trump risk’ – seeming too submissive to the US president, who is an extremely unpopular political leader in Italy and the rest of Europe and arouses a lot of distrust even among centre-right voters,” Pregliasco said.
Defeat in the referendum would not force Meloni to resign – his mandate runs until 2027 and he has repeatedly promised to fulfill it – but it could undermine his credibility within the EU, where he is often seen as a stable actor in a politically volatile environment.
The referendum focuses on a long debate over reforms aimed at reshaping the structure of Italy’s judiciary.
A key measure involves separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors, preventing them from switching roles – something that is currently allowed but rarely practiced.
Another major change concerns the Higher Judicial Council, which oversees magistrates’ appointments and disciplinary cases. The reform proposes dividing it into three separate chambers and changing the way members are selected, replacing internal elections with selection by lottery from qualified judges and prosecutors.
The conflict between Italy’s right-wing politicians and magistrates has disrupted Italian politics, exploding during the governments of the late conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi, who was one of the staunchest supporters of judicial reform.
Supporters argue that the changes will modernize the notoriously slow court system and increase accountability. But critics, including prominent magistrates, say the reform misses real priorities while endangering the independence of the judiciary.
Nicola Gratteri, Naples’ chief prosecutor and longtime anti-Mafia magistrate, offered one of the sharpest rebukes.
“I don’t think this government has implemented the reforms needed to make tests work more effectively,” he told the AP. “Instead, it has made it almost impossible to deal with crimes against public administration and to tackle white-collar abuse and corruption.”
As Italians prepare to vote, the referendum stands as one of the deciders Meloni’s premiership moments – a choice that could reshape not only the justice system but also the trajectory of his government, no matter what the outcome.
