Last year the Wisconsin Supreme Court election was supposed to decide the fate of “Western Civilization.” Tuesday’s match was certainly lackluster.
Voters will choose between liberal Chris Taylor and conservative Maria Lazar in the state’s third spring high court election in just four years. But unlike the last election — which cost more than $100 million and drew major national attention — this year’s contest is barely resonating among Wisconsin voters.
Alec Zimmerman, a longtime GOP member of the state, said, “I’m a huge college basketball fan and you couldn’t watch a game a year ago without seeing a Supreme Court ad.” “Looking at tournament games right now, it seems like there are a lot less games being played. It’s been really quiet.”
One reason for this is a packed election in November and the general sense that Tuesday’s contest may already be decided.
Statewide elections in Wisconsin in recent years have often been decided by extremely narrow majorities. But liberal candidates have swept the last three state Supreme Court races, taking control of the court in the process. Some activists say this has energized Republican voters and donors in the state.
“I think there’s anger from donors on the conservative side because they’re not winning,” said Brandon Scholz, a former executive director of the Wisconsin GOP who is leaving the party in 2021.
Then there’s the fact that, unlike last year, this election will not immediately decide which party gets a majority on the court. A Conservative victory would prevent the current 4-3 Liberal majority from growing.
The narrow liberal majority that arrived three years ago has already brought major changes to Wisconsin. Just last year, the court voted to overturn an abortion ban that had gone into effect in the state after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned its landmark decision. roe vs wade Ruling. Liberals on the court also joined forces to approve Governor Tony Evers’ use of the line-item veto to block a 400-year-old school funding increase. And in 2023, the newly established liberal majority ordered new legislative maps, breaking the long-standing GOP gerrymander.
Even Republicans believe Taylor has a far greater chance of victory.
“It’s definitely an uphill battle,” said Ben Voelkel, a former senior aide to Republican Senator Ron Johnson and a one-time candidate for lieutenant governor.
Both faced each other in A The fiery debate was conducted Thursday by a Milwaukee television station.in which Lazar criticized former Democratic state legislator Taylor as a judicial activist and Taylor described her opponent as beholden to “right-wing special interests.”
A few days before the end of voting, there was a clash between the two over abortion ban and redistricting.
Lazar raised nearly one million in campaign contributions According to the Wisconsin Ethics Commission, in 2025 and 2026 Taylor’s approximately $6 million. Data from ad tracker AdImpact showed that Taylor and liberal groups supporting her had spent more than $5 million on advertising, while the laser campaign and conservative groups had spent less than $400,000.
The spending is a far cry from 2025, when Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, spent millions on Republican Brad Schimel’s Supreme Court campaign. Musk was the one who argued forcefully that the fate of Western civilization depended on the outcome of the spring election, and he personally stormed the state to rally support.
Schimel was then soundly defeated by liberal judge Susan Crawford.
“They say, wait a minute, how many more millions do you want me to lose this cycle than I did trying to lose in the last two, three cycles?” Scholz said. “You want me to give up a few million dollars to maintain the minority?”
Despite this, Democrats are bullish about their prospects March poll from Marquette University This suggests that Taylor is as unfamiliar to voters as Lazar. Fifty-three percent of voters said they were undecided.
Lazarus campaign spokesman Nathan Conrad argued, “It shows me that someone else’s messaging is failing.” “If you have that much money and you can’t win over voters that quickly it means you have a message problem. And I think Maria definitely doesn’t have a message problem.”
Democratic strategists believe that the intense national attention and statewide frenzy that helped them win by large margins in the last several elections is not there this time.
“It feels like a race like six years ago,” said Alejandro Verdin, campaign manager for liberal state Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s successful 2023 Supreme Court bid.
But he is still confident Taylor will win – perhaps by a huge margin.
“This race for the Supreme Court is very different because the Republicans are completely behind,” he said. “They’re still licking their wounds from the massive screams they got from Janet Protasiewicz and Susan Crawford.”
With Democrats still eager to get their voters out to vote, they are looking for a way to communicate urgency in an environment where a majority is not at stake. Voters can’t rest on their laurels, Taylor said in an interview.
“The composition of this court could change very quickly because we have a lot of elections coming up,” he said. “So no one should think that this current majority is set in stone. It is not. After me we have four elections.”
And some believe Tuesday’s election will reveal a lot about the state of the state in late November — or two years from now when the presidential election swings back to the battleground state.
The governor’s race, in which Trump-backed Rep. Tom Tiffany will go up against the winner of a crowded Democratic primary, is one of the most closely watched elections this autumn.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez and former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes are among the Democrats running for their party’s endorsement in the August primary. Both sides are expecting a tough and costly fight in the elections.
Still, Lazar’s camp is arguing that the Supreme Court race is far from over, and she could pull off an upset.
Lazarus spokesman Conrad said, “I think when you have someone who has almost unlimited resources coming against you, we always play the underdog, it always feels like it’s an uphill battle.” “But I think we have the right message, and I think we have an opportunity for people to feel like they can get some common sense and sanity back on the court.”
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Do you want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other information you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
