The US and Iran are signaling progress toward ending their military conflict, but a final peace deal remains stalled on a key friction point: the fate of Tehran’s reserves of highly enriched uranium.
While the issue of tolling within the Strait of Hormuz is an equally serious issue, another formidable obstacle to peace is Iran’s nuclear stockpile.
The current resource crisis is partly a geopolitical challenge of Washington’s own making. Tehran’s stockpiles expanded aggressively under the supervision of three US presidents, where during this period, Iran accumulated approximately 10,000 kilograms of enriched uranium. America withdrew From the 2015 nuclear deal.
The stockpile contains about 440.9 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU) at 60 percent purity, a level that nonproliferation experts say is a short technical step away from the 90 percent weapons-grade threshold.
Theoretically, if processed further, the stockpile could yield 9 to 12 nuclear weapons.
Trump has made removing this stockpile a central objective of the war, and has insisted that Tehran will not be allowed to retain this material. The majority of the HEU are believed to be buried in the debris of the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear enrichment facilities, which Trump claimed the US had “destroyed” during the strikes last June.
Trump said, “We’ll get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. After we get it we’ll probably destroy it, but we won’t let them get it.” told reporters.
However, Iran’s leadership appears completely opposed to surrendering the materials. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive explicitly banning exports of the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium, according to two senior Iranian sources. Cited by Reuters.
Even if the physical arrangements to safely release buried hexafluoride gas could be worked out, the political will in Tehran is next to nothing. Iran, which keeps its nuclear program solely for civilian energy purposes, has fiercely resisted Washington’s demands.
While Trump said on Monday (May 18) he was holding off on further military action because there was a “very good chance” of reaching an agreement, regional allies are pushing for maximalist demands.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clearly stated that the war will not be considered over until Iran’s enriched uranium is completely removed, its support for regional proxy groups is ended, and its ballistic missile network is destroyed.
As talks progress, the US military is maintaining a highly visible deterrent posture. The US Central Command confirmed on Friday that the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group is on “peak readiness” in the Arabian Sea, continuing the maritime blockade against Iran.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Gian Liguid, do not have any direct investment interest in any of the companies mentioned in this article.
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