Could the ceasefire be extended? Apparently yes.

Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

“There should be no hesitation,” he wrote on Truth Social. He ordered mine sweeping to continue “at three times the level”. He then claimed “absolute control” over the strait: “No vessel can enter or depart from it without the sanction of the United States Navy. It is tightly sealed.”

A few minutes later, he reposted a Washington Post article with the headline: “Trump doesn’t need a deal to get what he wants from Iran.”

This is the seat. No hurry. No timeline. No deal needed. When reporters at the White House pressed him about passing the 4-6 week war deadline (now on day 55), Trump said: “Don’t rush me. I want to make the best deal possible. I can make a deal right now, but I don’t want to do that. I want to keep it forever.”

Gold is basically flat today. Oil retreated slightly after rising above $106 overnight (Brent, according to Al Jazeera). Silver is marginally higher. The dollar is a little low. Nasdaq is on the rise.

shoot to kill during ceasefire

The order to shoot at mine-laying boats is the most visible escalation since the blockade began on April 13. If the IRGC continues to deploy landmines (the Pentagon says they have been doing so since March), the order creates a situation of kinetic engagement during a supposed ceasefire. The capture of an IRGC speedboat laying mines by a US destroyer would immediately change the character of the conflict.

Italy announced it would deploy two minesweepers, an escort ship and a logistics ship to the strait as part of an international coalition. Navy chief Berruti Bergotto told RAI: ​​”Obviously we are not acting alone. We are part of an international coalition, and other countries will also send minesweepers.” More than 30 countries met at the UK Permanent Joint Headquarters in London this week to plan a multinational mine clearance operation. The Pentagon has said that full clearance of the mine could take up to six months.

BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, said shipping companies need assurances from both Iran and the US before transiting the strait. Jacob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief security officer, called the mines “of particular concern”. This tells you how far away the strait is from reopening. Even if Iran and the US both declared war tomorrow, it would be several months before commercial traffic returned to normal.

The strait remains effectively closed. According to LSEG tracking data, only 8 ships transited on Wednesday, including 3 oil tankers. Pre-war normal: 100+ ships per day. This is 8% of normal traffic.

Oil back above $100

Brent rose to $106.80 early on Friday (Al Jazeera), surpassing $100 for the first time in two weeks. Brent is now above $105, down from $94 a week ago. The flag pattern breakout is bullish.

Crude oil is also rising, but it is yet to go above the $100 level.

The move target measured from the flag pattern I am tracking shows that if the pattern is completed, crude oil will rise above $170. The fact that the strait remains virtually closed supports this view from a fundamental point of view.

Each act of IRGC aggression (seized two ships on Wednesday, fired on two ships on Tuesday, gunboat attacks on Saturday) reinforces the structural supply disruption that powers the pattern.

Please note that even at current prices crude oil suggests huge decline in shares and objects In the next months.

On a short-term basis, we see a pause after a sharp decline – at least in mining stocks – and this is completely natural.

I just realized something special about the recent surge. That is, it was similar (in terms of timing) / almost identical (in terms of price) to the February rally. I marked the latter with a red, dashed line, and I copied the line to the march floor. It is noteworthy that it finished on top recently.

If I had measured the moves based on closing prices instead of intraday extremes, the alignment would have been even clearer.

Now, if the rallies were almost identical, perhaps the follow-up would be similar. This is what I used the purple, dashed lines for. It turns out that the current pace of decline in GDXJ exactly coincides with the decline in March.

This confirms the bearish stance for the next weeks.

In the full version of today’s analysis (… gold trading alert), I’ve been discussing the implications of the precious metals market in more detail, but here, I want to show you a major commodity-related sell signal that you may have missed.

FCX is one of the major gold and copper producers, and it is considered particularly volatile at times when commodities and stocks decline together.

Quoting my gold trading alert from yesterday:

“FCX invalidated its move above previous highs, thus flashing a major sell signal. Yesterday, it moved above those highs, but volume was relatively weak, and I suspect this breakout will last.

Invalidation of the breakout and weekly close would clearly set the stage for a powerful decline below the previous 2026 high.

FCX fell within an hour of me posting the above. It looks like we’re going to get a clear weekly close below the previous 2026 high, setting the stage for a much bigger decline in the coming weeks.

This is a sell signal that comes on top of multiple OTsThe signs I discussed earlierAnd that’s important to other markets, as FCX moves in tandem with copper, gold (no surprise, the company produces both metals), and mining stocks. While it won’t happen that FCX takes down other markets, it could serve as a canary in the coal mine.

Thanks for reading today’s article – the free version of today’s Gold Trading Alert (with analysis in progress). Subscribers receive full analysis with charts, technical levels and trading conditions daily. Gold trading alerts are available directly and through the Diamond package.

Thank you.

sincerely,

Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA