Google CEO Sundar Pichai attends the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi, India on Friday, Feb. 20, 2026.
AP
Quietly, Google-Parent Shares alphabet On the verge of reaching $5 trillion and surpassing AI-leader NVIDIA As the world’s most valuable company.
And judging by option prices, it could happen sooner rather than later.
The breakout in Alphabet shares came after a 10% surge on Thursday pushed the company’s 1-year gain to 140% and market capitalization to more than $4.6 trillion. The company reported revenue on Wednesday that beat analysts’ estimates and pushed Google Cloud revenue to more than $20 billion.
At the same time, the world’s biggest company — AI kingpin Nvidia, which now trades with a market cap of just under $4.9 trillion — dropped more than 6% in two days after the Wall Street Journal reported that business partner OpenAI missed internal revenue and growth projections.
If Nvidia doesn’t rally on or after its report on May 20 — and the stock has actually fallen after four of its last five earnings reports — the options market says it’s likely Alphabet will trade as the world’s largest company as early as May 15.
Here’s the math: For Alphabet to acquire Nvidia’s current market cap, the stock needs to rise about 4% or more, to about $401 a share.
Based on premiums paid for call contracts around that strike, options traders are predicting about a 53% chance it could hit that level any time between now and May 15.
According to data from ThinkOrSwim, Alphabet is likely to close above $400 on May 22, just after NVIDIA’s earnings are up nearly 30%.
The last time Alphabet was the world’s most valuable company was in 2016, when it briefly ousted Apple from the top spot.
