There was a sigh of relief in the Gulf region late Tuesday when Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week ceasefire, ending more than five weeks of escalating violent attacks and inflammatory rhetoric.
Just hours earlier, US President Donald Trump had threatened to destroy “the entire civilization” and Tehran warned of more attacks in the Gulf and beyond.
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But 90 minutes before Trump’s deadline for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or be “sent back to the Stone Age”, the US president said he had agreed to halt strikes for two weeks on the condition of resuming maritime transit in the key waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural liquefied gas passes. Iran had almost completely blocked traffic through the chokepoint since February 28 in response to joint United States-Israel attacks on its soil.
In a separate message, Trump described the 10-point plan presented by Iran as “a practical basis for negotiations.” According to Iranian state media, one of Iran’s points is that Tehran should continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that passage in two weeks would only be possible “in coordination” with the Iranian military.
While actual talks are set to begin in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad over the weekend, experts say Gulf countries are wary that the US, desperate for an exit, could agree to terms that give Iran some control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia-based scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said, “There is a quiet but clear concern that President Trump, eager for a quick political win, may tolerate some Iranian influence over the strait in exchange for a fragile truce, prioritizing optics over the realities of the Gulf.”
In a flurry of statements, the six countries comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which faces Iranian missiles and drone attacks almost every day, sounded the alarm. With different words, they all welcomed the ceasefire but stressed that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened, and any agreement must result in a permanent, long-term arrangement.
The alternative – in which a weak, yet rigid and intact Iranian leadership makes decisions on the Strait – would be a nightmare scenario for the energy-rich Gulf states, Alghannam said, leaving them under constant threat of disruption and economic blackmail.
“It makes future war more likely over time while forcing the GCC to remain under Iranian strategic pressure indefinitely. That suspended tension is what makes it so unacceptable,” he said.
‘no stone unturned’
In surprise comments early Wednesday, Trump said a joint US-Iran venture could be created to establish tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. “This is a way to keep it safe — while also keeping it safe from a lot of other people,” he said. The White House later said that the US President had considered the idea, but added that his near-term priority was to “reopen the strait without any limits, whether in the form of tolls or otherwise”.
A worse scenario for the Gulf states would be that Iran would end the war with Iran still able to attack at will.
Despite US claims of military victory and claims that 90 percent of Iran’s firing capability had been destroyed, weakened Iranian forces were able to launch precision strikes when they wished – including against key energy infrastructure. Also on Wednesday, after the ceasefire was announced, dozens of Iranian missiles and drones were launched at the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Since the beginning of the war, the GCC countries have refrained from entering the conflict, maintaining a defensive posture against Iranian shelling fired toward their territory. Nevertheless, countries such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have adopted increasingly tough rhetoric, including warnings that patience is not “limitless.”
Concerns about Iran’s future influence on the Strait of Hormuz also extend to the Gulf region.
A Bahrain-sponsored resolution at the UN Security Council on Tuesday called on the body to authorize countries to use defensive missions to keep the maritime chokepoint open. It was supported by Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan. But Russia and China vetoed this proposal.
Mohammed Abushab, UAE Permanent Representative to the UN, said, “No country should have the power to close the arteries of global trade. The Security Council had a responsibility to act and it failed. The Strait of Hormuz cannot become a bargaining chip for Iran, nor a lever in broader global politics.”
Further escalation could have devastating consequences for GCC economies, ruining decades of work to make the region a secure hub for finance, tourism and culture – efforts that have already been hampered by the war. Analysts say this was one reason why GCC countries increased diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict.
But officials across the region have repeatedly warned that Iran should not interpret its inaction as a sign of weakness. And if Tehran and Washington fail to find a solution that includes a return to free navigation in the Gulf, the calculus could change.
Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University, said, “If Iran continues to pursue the path of aggression, the Gulf will leave no stone unturned.” “The Gulf expects its interests to be represented and included in any agreement with Iran,” he said.
Even if GCC concerns are taken into account, there is no guarantee that Iran and the US will agree to a permanent ceasefire in upcoming talks.
While the fate of the Strait of Hormuz has attracted global attention, one of Trump’s justifications for attacking Iran was to get rid of the Iranian nuclear program. In the latest round of talks, Iran showed readiness to discuss its border, but always refused to completely dismantle it, as Trump wanted.
That sticking point still remains. White House spokeswoman Carolyn Leavitt said, “The President’s red lines, namely the end of Iranian enrichment in Iran, have not changed.”
