The confirmation by Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani marks a turning point in the current conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States. As Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Larijani was widely considered a central figure in shaping Iran’s strategic decisions. Indeed, his voice was crucial in managing Iran’s confrontation with the West and shaping long-term alliances such as the cooperation agreement with China, which served as a vital bridge between ideological loyalty and practical strategy.
At the time of his death, Larijani was in charge of managing three major crises. His view regarding war was that Iran should prepare for a long-term conflict and expand the conflict throughout the region, including the Strait of Hormuz. Second, he oversaw the response to widespread protests and economic grievances, which resulted in a severe crackdown and thousands of casualties. Ultimately, he resolved the consequences of stalled negotiations with Washington and military attacks on nuclear facilities.
Larijani’s death leaves unresolved crisis for unknown successor amid growing vulnerabilities
Although Iran has shown resilience by partially disrupting global energy markets, its airspace remains vulnerable to continued attacks. Larijani’s death is part of a broader campaign that has ousted several senior officials in a short period of time, including the late supreme leader Ali Khamenei. There are signs that power is shifting toward the military, with President Pejaskian giving the armed forces broad authority to act independently if the central leadership is incompetent. In practice, this may mean that decisions are being made more quickly, but with less central coordination.
There are also signs that the leadership is struggling to manage succession. Iran has delayed public announcements and kept some figures, including new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, largely out of sight. Whether this is for security reasons or due to internal uncertainty is not clear. In the short term, Iran is expected to adopt a tough military stance and harsh domestic repression. Iranian army chief Amir Hatami has also threatened to launch decisive retaliation over Larijani’s death.
Ultimately, a system that is losing its most senior people is finding it increasingly difficult to function effectively in a country of over 90 million people. This recent incident is not just about the loss of an officer, but it symbolizes the escalation of a serious crisis that could affect both the course of the war and the stability of the Iranian state.
