The clock is ticking for May deliveries on COMEX

76.88 million ounces of registered silver. 575.5 million ounces open interest.

Coverage ratio of 13.4% – below the stress threshold for the sixth consecutive point. And the first notice day for the May contract is approaching.

In January 2026, 33.45 million ounces of silver was withdrawn from COMEX registered inventories in a single week. This shows that about 26% of the deliverable pool will disappear in seven days, an event that, if repeated at even half the intensity, would absorb about 21% of today’s registered inventory within a week.

The May 2026 COMEX silver contract delivery cycle is now approaching first notice day.

I covered stagflation data (March CPI at 3.3%, Q4 GDP revised up to +0.5%). First article of this issue. This article focuses on something different: the structural mechanics of the COMEX silver market and why the closer the delivery cycle is more important than most commentators realize.

This week’s premium features eight deep dives silver catalyst issue, and in this article, I will focus on one of them.

what do the numbers represent

CME Group’s Daily Metals Stock Report for April 13, 2026 (reflecting activity through April 10) provides the current picture:

Source:CME Group – COMEX Daily Metal Stocks Report, Silver, April 13, 2026

Two things are worth noting in this table.

The first is what did not move: registered inventory. Over a two-week period silver traded in a 6.6% range: from $72.26 on April 7, to $77.00 on April 8, then to $73.58 on April 13. Price fluctuations of that magnitude typically generate registration and de-registration activity, as metals owners reassess whether it makes economic sense to hold their rods in the deliverable pool. The fact that it remained essentially flat (a gain of just 40,000 ounces) through a 7% single-session armistice increase and a 3.5% blockade-driven selloff tells you something about the state of the institutions that hold that metal. They did not release inventory at $77. They didn’t pull it at $73. That behavioral signal (inertia in both directions) is consistent with long-term institutional accumulation rather than short-term price trading.

The second is what moved forward: Eligible inventory cleared 1.83 mos simultaneously across four different warehouses: Brinks, Delaware Depository, Loomis International, and Manfra Tordella & Brooks. To understand why this matters, the entire chain is needed: When a futures contract goes for physical delivery, metal is removed from the registered inventory; Operators perform registered replenishment by converting eligible metal through the warrant process; If the vessel is draining itself without offsetting the flow, the buffer available to refill the register when needed begins to grow thin. The drain in isolation is slow enough that it’s nothing to worry about. The direction, consistently outward in many vaults, is indicative.

Coverage ratio and what it means

Open interest on COMEX silver contracts stands at approximately 575.5 moz compared to 76.88 moz of registered silver. This is the coverage ratio of 13.4%Represents the portion of paper contracts that can theoretically be satisfied with immediately deliverable physical metal.

The 15% range is where COMEX analysts define the tension zone. The current ratio has been below that threshold for six consecutive issues of this newsletter. There was no improvement in it even once.

The leverage ratio of 7.5:1 (575.5 Moz paper divided by 76.88 Moz registered) sounds worrying, but context matters. COMEX typically operates with leverage in the 5-8:1 range. The system works because the majority of futures contracts (historically 97–99%) are forward or settled in cash rather than taking physical delivery. Nobody actually demands metal.

Until they do.

In January 2026, the delivery rate reached 5-10% of contracts. In the same week, 33.45 kg were withdrawn from the registered inventory.Represents 26% of the pool deliverable in seven days. Every 1% increase in the delivery rate on the May contract above historical norms would require an additional 5-6 mos of registered metal. At the current registered level of 76.88 Maoz, a repeat of the January intensity – even at half the magnitude – would deplete about 21% of the registered inventory in a week.

There is no need to repeat the January one to make the May delivery cycle productive. It just needs to run at a slightly higher delivery rate, sustained over several days, in a registered pool that has not evolved.

Why does this matter beyond the near term?

The COMEX situation connects to a broader structural reality “Rise of Silver” recognized as Catalyst #2: COMEX Inventory Shortage Causing Delivery Crisis. The mechanism described in the book is not a theoretical risk: a paper market that has grown while the physical inventory supporting it has shrunk. This is the current operating condition of the COMEX silver market, which can be measured in the daily warehouse report.

Activator #48: Available 28 physical ounces per paper ounce Captures the leverage dimension. The originator name uses a ratio of the time the book was written; The current 7.5:1 ratio represents an improvement from those extremes, but structural dynamics (far more paper than physical deliverables) remain intact and are a permanent condition entering the May cycle.

What makes the present moment particularly telling is the combination of factors coming together. The coverage ratio is 13.4%. The eligible pool is emptying. The January retreat demonstrated that the system could increasingly experience intense stress. And the May delivery cycle opens against this backdrop while geopolitical risks (the Hormuz blockade, although armistice talks are progressing with Brent retreating to around $87-88 on deal optimism by April 17) mean the physical supply picture remains in flux.

World Silver Survey 2026 confirmed Estimate The sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 moz for 2026 (2025 actual: 40.3 moz), with about 762 moz withdrawn from above ground stocks since 2021. It provides the structural background. The deficit does not directly create a distribution program. But they mean that the above-ground inventory available to support the stressed COMEX has been declining for five consecutive years.

Outlook

Silver at $79.60 (Apr 17) is down about 34.6% from the Jan 29 all-time high of $121.67. The correction is real, and short-term volatility will continue while the Hormuz situation remains unresolved and rate expectations remain high.

What hasn’t been fixed is the underlying structure. The COMEX coverage ratio did not improve through the correction. Eligible pool not refilled. The paper leverage ratio did not narrow. These are not price signals – they are signals from the physical infrastructure, and they move more slowly and more consequentially than the spot price.

if you want Follow the structural dynamics of silver throughout 2026 As the May delivery cycle and LBMA drawdown develop in parallel, full silver catalyst Issue #13 includes seven more deep dives: March CPI confirms stagflation thesis at 3.3%, the Hormuz blockade and the new mining cost floor, 64% semiconductor revenue growth and what it means for industrial silver demand, Section 301 closing today and tariff risks to Mexico’s 185-200 moj annual supply, LBMA London Vault drawdown on an average day’s trading volume With free float down, Samsung solid-state battery commercial timeline, and structural inflation as arguments weigh on Fed’s confirmation delay and fiscal dominance. I encourage you to Get “Silver Rising” with two weeks of free access to the Silver Catalyst newsletter.

Thank you.

silver engineer