United Nations Secretary General welcomed The extension, calling it “an important step towards reducing tensions and creating significant space for diplomacy and confidence-building”, while urging all parties to refrain from actions that could undermine the ceasefire and to engage constructively towards a lasting solution.
Nevertheless diplomatic efforts are continuing, Security incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most important maritime bottleneck points – underline the fragility of the situation.
Reports of ships being fired upon or seized by both Iranian and US forces highlight the ongoing threats to shipping through the narrow waterway, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supply and a significant portion of global fertilizer inputs.
Marine insurance costs have soared, ship traffic has fallen sharply since late February, and about 20,000 seafarers are stranded amid uncertainty.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but important shipping route connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the wider Arabian Sea. It is located between Iran in the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates in the south.
shock waves beyond the area
The disruption is causing what UN agencies describe as a humanitarian and economic shock far wider than the Middle East.
Rising oil prices and reduced maritime traffic are driving up transportation, power and agricultural input costs in import-dependent economies of Asia, including Pakistan. Sri LankaBangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines – with direct consequences for aid delivery and access to essential services.
These pressures are compounding pre-existing vulnerabilities – from high food insecurity to economic fragility – leaving millions of families and already overstretched response systems with little capacity to absorb further shocks.
Across Asia, an estimated 45.5 million people are already in need of humanitarian assistanceResponse plans target 27.2 million people and require $3.6 billion in funding.
Food security threats are increasing
One of the most immediate concerns is the impact on food systems.
One-third of global trade in fertilizer raw materials passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions in ammonia and nitrogen shipments are threatening to disrupt supplies at a critical time.
In bangladeshThe closure of many government fertilizer factories has disrupted domestic production during the winter rice season, creating immediate pressure on farmers.
Higher fuel and transportation costs are also affecting food prices. In NepalDiesel – the primary fuel for lorries and heavy machinery – has risen sharply, driving up costs across the economy.
If the crisis persists, the U.N. Estimate give warning An additional 9.1 million people in Asia may face severe food insecurity.
Concern about the next planting season
The timing is particularly worrisome, coinciding with key crop planting windows.
Farmers facing higher costs and uncertain access to fertilizers may reduce input use, plant fewer plants or switch to other crops – decisions that could reduce yields and tighten food supplies in the coming months.
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO)fao) warned that delays in key inputs risk disrupting planting cycles, the impact of which could spill over into the next crop season.
“If we do not have inputs at the required time…producers will have to produce with less inputs…and hence their yields may be lower,Maximo Torero, the agency’s chief economist, recently warned.
humanitarian operations under pressure
For humanitarian agencies, the crisis is already translating into operational constraints.
Rising fuel costs, disrupted shipping routes and higher insurance premiums are making it more expensive and difficult to provide assistance – Especially in inaccessible and landlocked places.
in many countries, response plans They already did not have enough money before the increase, leaving little room to absorb rising operating costs.
In afghanistanLogistics costs have increased by nearly 20 percent, and more than half of humanitarian goods pipelines are at risk of breakdown. These pressures come as return movements from neighboring countries continue and humanitarian needs remain acute.
In myanmarWhere 90 percent of fuel is imported, supply disruptions have led to rationing measures, including vehicle restrictions, complicating aid delivery to conflict and earthquake-affected areas where access was already weak.
In bangladeshFuel-sales limits and scheduled blackouts are impacting energy access and service continuity, while high freight costs are disrupting supply chains. Across the region, humanitarian workers report reduced operational flexibility and increasing difficulty maintaining large-scale assistance.
Homes were destroyed in the August 2025 earthquake in eastern Afghanistan. More than 2,200 people lost their lives and several thousand more were injured.
squeezed on both sides
This crisis is affecting both sides of the humanitarian equation: The needs are increasing, while the cost of reaching people is increasing.
Unless additional and flexible funding is mobilized, UN agencies and humanitarian partners have warned that they may be forced to reduce assistance as demand increases.
The extension of the ceasefire this week provides an opportunity to ease tensions. But uncertainty remains in the Strait of Hormuz and is impacting supply chains, food systems and aid operations, The risk remains that a temporary setback could turn into a deeper and longer-lasting humanitarian crisis.
