FRANKLIN, Ind. – President Donald Trump’s retaliation campaign here isn’t going as well as he’d like.
The effort to oust him was considered a major show of force after eight Indiana Republican state senators refused to bow to him on redistricting. But after spending millions of dollars and weeks of intense campaigning, his aides are still struggling to send a clear, consistent message to voters about why they should remove the lawmakers.
Only a few dozen people attended a rally last weekend organized by Turning Point USA with conservative activist Scott Pressler that featured a cardboard cutout of Trump holding his hands triumphantly in the air. And when POLITICO asked one of the president-elect’s candidates what the defining issue of his campaign was, state Rep. Michelle Davis paused.
“Good question, umm. God, okay, defining issue. What’s this about?” he said, searching for an answer. “Well, what I say is that we need real, true conservatives out there. We need someone who stands up on things like common sense with the GOP Party and conservative people, primary voters, things like making sure boys aren’t in girls’ locker rooms, boys not playing in girls’ sports, making sure we stand up for parents’ rights, yes, I think those are some defining things.
What is being reported is that Davis did not mention state Senator Greg Walker, whom she is challenging, was a vocal opponent of Trump’s assigned map. “When I was knocking on doors, not a single person was talking to me about redistricting,” she confessed.
This is not a surprise.
According to AdImpact, Indiana’s May 5 primary is being driven almost entirely by Trump’s need for revenge, a rage that has drawn nearly $8 million and counting in ads alone — not to mention copious amounts of mail — combined spending on the normally sleepy and often uncontested race. But the contests represent the challenge of turning out MAGA’s low-propensity voting coalition in the midterm elections, when Trump isn’t on the ballot — let alone attempting to unify its voters around an arcane issue like redrawing political maps.
“My guess is it’s going to be a mixed situation,” said a national GOP operative working on the race. “Everyone will get their turn.”
It’s been proven that Trump’s MAGA base is rallying behind him in large numbers because they think he’ll help them — but they may not be as eager to punish his enemies.
Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a prominent GOP figure who opposed gerrymandering and has worked to re-elect senators whom Trump is targeting, said, “I’ve been reminded of a lesson I learned a long time ago in business: Revenge is not a strategy.”
MAGA forces have struggled to find a coherent theory of the case, and their messaging has largely avoided talking about redistricting. In one Senate district, Hoosier Leadership for America, Sen. Jim Banks’s political nonprofit, run by longtime Team Trump operative Andrew Surabian, is under fire for being too old — even though he’s less than a year younger than Trump.
“State Senator Jim Buck. 80 years old. Decades in politics have changed him,” the narrator begins. AdvertisementWhich also attacks him for allegedly “letting China own our agricultural land” and voting to “raise our gas tax.”
At least two of the White House-backed candidates are struggling with reports about their complex personal backgroundDirtying their messages. “There are probably some candidates they wish they could come back to,” said one Indiana Republican strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity to assess the White House’s strategy. “The question for the White House is who do you believe won? They’re sticking to what the data tells them in each of these races. We’ll see.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
According to people familiar with his thinking, some in power have in recent days upset allies that they are losing in internal elections.
An Indiana Trump aide estimated that five of the challengers were in races that were as vulnerable or safe as Trump’s victory. Three races were tossups or safe.
Still, some of Trump’s closest allies in the state argue that the race is not really about the president.
“I think some people think this is just about loyalty to Trump,” Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith told Politico. “I don’t think it is at all. I actually think it’s more about the future direction in the Republican Party,” referring to whether the party eventually becomes more Trumpian, even if Trump is not on the ballot.
Republicans suffered a narrow defeat in Virginia on Tuesday after voters approved Democrats’ plan to gerrymander that state, setting off a controversy. latest round Of venting on Hoosier holdouts. However, Trump’s GOP critics say the party spent too much in Virginia’s close contest — and they could have used some of the millions of dollars MAGA is spending on reelection in Indiana.
Mark Short, former chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence, said, “MAGA groups are spending millions to primary for one seat for Indiana state senators, but are barely even spending a dollar with 4 House seats in VA.” Posted on x. “Does it make sense?” (Pence himself has stepped forward and endorsed Buck.)
Even if Trump runs the table here, it could be a big win — every dollar MAGA spends here is one it wouldn’t spend in a more competitive midterm state.
Asked whether the White House was focused on retaliating against a safe red seat at the expense of defense in the battleground state, a Republican close to the White House and granted anonymity by POLITICO to speak candidly, answered bluntly: “We can do both.”
The eight states that Trump has endorsed in their Senate primaries provide a handy scorecard with which to measure his impact in a crucial midterm year. But as the reparations campaign appears to be slowing, Beckwith downplayed the need for MAGA to win the race.
“We win three, that would be nice,” Beckwith said. “If we win five, that’s a great night. And anything after five is crazy.”
David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth, which is investing $1.5 million in six of the seven primaries, said his ambitions are huge: “At this stage, we want them all.”
About 90 miles north of Franklin, MAGA forces are targeting first-term state Senator Spencer Deery, one of their earliest and most vocal redistricting opponents. The Turning Point Action flyer accuses Deere of holding undesirable positions: It says he “betrayed” Trump on redistricting, but also accuses him of voting against “safety on our streets,” claiming he “supports corporate welfare,” and “wants to sell off Hoosier farmland.”
The mailer confused Derry.
“I looked at these votes, and honestly I can’t tell you what any of them are,” Derry told POLITICO during an afternoon door-knocking session on Monday. “I think it says they’re clearly not thinking specifically or probing very much in their analysis of the issues or race.”
Last month, Deery realized he could potentially knock on a third door if he could get around on an electric scooter instead of walking, so he bought a $250 knock-off on Amazon. More than $2 million has already been spent on the race, most of it against him, estimating it will take 5,500 votes to win the contest – a cost of more than $300 per vote.
“That’s a huge amount of money for a state Senate race,” he said.
But there are some signs that MAGA’s messy messaging may be backfiring
On Monday afternoon, Deery arrived at the home of Rosa Uhrin, 74, a longtime Republican who had an American flag that she planned to hang on her porch.
“Hey, I recognize you,” she said, referring to the ads against Deere.
He tightened his waist.
But instead of scolding him for voting against redistricting, Uhrin told Derry that he planned to vote for him.
“I’m a Republican, but I’m with him,” Uhrin said of Trump. “You can’t support him anymore. You… can’t support him anymore. He’s an idiot.”
Deeri shrugged. “Sometimes I agree with them, sometimes I don’t. But I tell people this all the time: I don’t work for them.”
Uhrin gave Deery some encouragement. “I hope they see those ads for you,” she said. “I hope they see that all this is not true.”
Deeri’s shoulders sagged. He turned back towards the road after knocking for several hours and stopped near his car to collect his scooter.
