According to US spy agencies, China is not currently planning to invade Taiwan next year.
An intelligence assessment said that rather than military intervention, Beijing wanted to gain control of the key island in the Pacific without force.
The annual report said that although Chinese Communist Party leaders do not plan to take back Taiwan by force, the People’s Liberation Army is developing its military capabilities that could be used in any attempt to seize the island.
It read: “Chinese leaders do not currently plan to carry out an invasion taiwan in 2027, nor do they have any firm timeline for achieving integration.”
This assessment comes when Beijing is increasing pressure on Taiwan continuous military exercises In one of the world’s largest potential flashpoints.
The Pentagon said last year that the US military believes China It was preparing to be able to occupy Taiwan through “brute force” by 2027 – the centenary of the founding of its People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
But the latest report released on Wednesday said Beijing would prefer to pursue its goal of ‘reunification’ with the democratically ruled island ‘peacefully’.
“Despite threats to use force to force unification if necessary and to counter the U.S. effort to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, China prefers to achieve unification without the use of force if possible,” the report said.
It said the PLA was making “steady but uneven” progress on capabilities it could use to capture Taiwan.
Explosive barrels placed on the Tamsui River by the Taiwan Army. Photo: Reuters
China’s Foreign Ministry responded to the report, saying the US should correct its understanding of China and that resolving the Taiwan question is solely China’s business.
But Japan rejected claims in the report that there was a “significant change” in Tokyo’s stance on Taiwan, after Prime Minister Sanae Takachi said a Chinese attack on the island would trigger a Japanese response.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary, Minoru Kihara, said: “The government’s position of assessing the existential crisis situation with all the information collected is consistent with the past.
“The assessment that there has been any major change is not accurate.”
Photo: Reuters
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China reacted sharply to Ms Takachi’s comments that Japan would take military action in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, with China urging its people not to travel to Japan and halting some exports.
Ms Takaichi has said that her position – which raises the risk of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, which would trigger regional conflict – was in line with long-standing Japanese policy.
The US report said: “China is exerting multi-domain coercive pressure that will likely intensify through 2026, aimed at punishing Japan and deterring other countries from making similar statements about their potential involvement in the Taiwan crisis.”
us President Donald TrumpHe, who delayed a planned visit to China later this month because of the Iran war, has repeatedly touted his “great relationship” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and downplayed the threat of Chinese drills near Taiwan.
He said Mr Xi told him he would not attack Taiwan while he was US president, although Beijing has never confirmed this.
China views Taiwan – which was established in 1949 when the Nationalist government retreated after Communist forces seized power on the mainland – as its territory, and has never renounced the use of force to seize the island.
Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying only the island’s people can decide its future.
