Reports are emerging of a sharp increase in suspicious oil market activity linked to US President Donald Trump’s surprise foreign policy announcement. About fifteen minutes before Trump’s announcement, traders placed millions of dollars in bets on oil contracts.
Trading volume for WTI crude oil was 733 contracts; In just one minute, it reached 2,007 contracts. A similar pattern was seen in Brent crude, where the volume increased from 2 to 1,600 contracts in a minute. Analysts say this volume is well above normal activity on a Monday morning, especially since there were no public signs of US-Iran talks at the time.
After threatening to destroy Iran’s power plants on Saturday, President Trump posted on Truth Social at 07:04 ET on Monday that there had been a “very good and productive conversation” regarding a resolution to the hostilities. A 14% decline followed shortly after, hitting a low of $84 a barrel, while the stock market recovered.
Analysts suggest that the unusual activity indicates that some traders had advance knowledge of the president’s decision. In this regard, a spokesperson said that the administration does not tolerate illegal profiteering from insider information by any official. The Iranian government dismissed reports of the talks as fake news, stating that the claims were a strategy to manipulate the financial and oil markets. Nonetheless, this incident follows a similar panic in January 2026, where crypto-gamblers on Polymarket made huge profits betting on the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro before he was seized by the US military.
