WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES – MARCH 20: United States President Donald Trump (right) speaks to the press in Washington DC before departing the White House en route to Miami, Florida on March 20, 2026.
Celal Guns | Anadolu | getty images
Almost a month has passed since the Iran war, the United States is preparing to send thousands of additional soldiers Expanding an already existing military footprint in the Middle East thousands of American personnel In the area.
But analysts say the buildup signals something more than preparations for a ground attack, who suggested it is an exercise in coercive diplomacy — designed by President Donald Trump to increase pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table.
“President Trump is essentially saying that either you – the Iranians – can cut a deal now or suffer potentially more serious consequences down the road,” Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at the Rand School of Public Policy, told CNBC via email. Cohen said the military buildup gives the president the option not only to attack, but to negotiate with force.
Washington and Tehran have struggled to find a way to begin talks on peace terms, with each side insisting it has the upper hand in the conflict while portraying the other as more desperate.
The US has circulated a 15-point peace plan, demanding a complete end to Iran’s nuclear program and taking tough action. Limitations on the reach and size of its missile arsenal – As stated in February, before negotiations broke down and led to a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran.
The Iranian government, for its part, has announced that it will not end the conflict unless Washington pays war reparations and recognizes Tehran’s “exercise of sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier on Thursday, Late. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said this there was no conversation Between Tehran and Washington.
Pakistan has offered to facilitate peace talks for a “comprehensive solution” to the ongoing war. But neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed such discussions.
At the same time, America ordered on Tuesday to send thousands more soldiers From the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to an area that can be rapidly deployed for potential additional military action, such as Kharg Island oil port captured or if negotiations fail, reopening the strait.
Analysts say these forces could give the president greater leverage in his negotiations, but also risk stoking Tehran’s resentment and provoking a harsh response.
“Diplomacy is almost always backed up by force,” Iranian-American historian Arash Azizi said in an email to CNBC. He said that under Trump, this is done even “more openly and in a more brutal manner.”
The administration has been particularly inconsistent in its messaging, with Trump Allegedly Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he wants a quick end to the war continued its war-like warningsAdding that “We consider ourselves part of this conversation. We negotiate with bombs.”
Military hostilities continue to escalate in the region Iranian army It reportedly said in a statement earlier on Thursday that it had struck satellite stations in Israel as well as Middle Eastern bases hosting US troops.
far away demand
Analysts say the gap between what the US and Iran want is wide, with Israel still another wildcard even if the two sides manage to find a common ground.
Israel has not yet commented publicly on the peace terms during the latest war of words. Reports are indicating The Israeli government was taken aback by Washington’s proposal. CNBC could not verify the claim.
File photo: Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attends a rally in Tehran, Iran, May 31, 2019.
Hamid Forutan | via reuters
Iranian officials have indicated that they would likely reject the US’s terms and have drawn up their own list of conditions for ending the war, which also includes Tehran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
This could be a nonstarter for the US as Trump on Monday raised the possibility that the strait could be jointly controlled by “me and the Ayatollah”. America’s demand for restrictions on Iran’s missile program could also be a line of danger for Tehran.
“How long the conflict will last will depend on how long it takes both sides to reach a consensus,” Cohen said.
‘extremely difficult’ task
Military reinforcements give Trump more options, but analysts say they may not be enough against an opponent who has long prepared for this fight.
Daniel Davis, a senior fellow and military expert at the policy think-tank Defense Priorities, said actual U.S. ground combat forces might be enough to seize a small, lightly defended target for a short period of time. However, he said it would not be enough to sustain operations against a country that has spent years strengthening underground missile cities, dispersing its forces and preparing for exactly this scenario.
“I think (the reinforcements) have a very low probability of success and a very high probability of casualties,” Davis said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday. Davis retired from the US Army after 21 years of active service.
Davis said the deployment of specialized units like the 82nd Airborne Division could provide rapid ground response capability, but would not be sustainable without a massive follow-on troop commitment.
According to the retired military veteran, US military planning so far regarding Iran has also reflected some miscalculations on Trump’s part.
The success might have given the administration confidence The operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, Davis said, but Iran’s geography, military capabilities and strategic depth bear little resemblance to the Caracas raid.
Unlike Venezuela, Iran is an enemy that is “very capable of retaliating,” with well-trained proxies throughout the region and control over a chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows, Davis said. “This is a much more difficult task than Venezuela,” he said.
‘Forever War’
But according to Ben Emmons, founder of investment management firm Fedwatch Advisors, even a managed resolution of the Iran war could leave a lasting mark on the world economy and geopolitical landscape.
Emmons told CNBC via email that the impact of the disruption to the LNG, helium, sulfur and fertilizer supply chains could last for up to 18 months. Food inflation is likely to remain high, which will have political implications for many countries. Including the United States, Emmons said.
Should operations in the Strait of Hormuz resume to pre-war levels, the blow to already-deficit oil supplies could last into the second half of this year, Emmons said.
The path to a ceasefire appeared extremely uncertain, with little visibility as to when or whether negotiations between the US and Iran would resume.
“There is a possibility of some kind of pause in the next few weeks (but) the question is what will happen after this pause,” Azizi said. He said, “It may be that regime change in Iran could lead to a permanent agreement or at least permanent non-belligerence. We could also enter into a more war-averse process that would lead to another ‘forever war’.”
