Once in California, I went to the Orange County Fairgrounds to watch Arnold Schwarzenegger signal for a hazard ball to be dropped on a vehicle.
The audience cheered, and Schwarzenegger became governor and fulfilled his promise to roll back the car tax increase, which had left a $4 billion hole in the state budget.
I think it’s fair to say that in the current gubernatorial campaign season, the excitement level is several decibels lower than what we experienced in 2003. But once again, it’s fair to say that we haven’t seen anything like this year’s derby.
Longtime political observer Dan Schnurr said, “There is no historical precedent in modern California history for a governor’s race with such a large field or such an amorphous field of candidates.” “Unless you’re paying very close attention, it looks like a big multi-headed political blob.”
To break it down, eight Democrats and two Republicans are running in the primary, and here’s the weirdest thing about it:
The two Republicans could be the top two vote-getters as the Democrats have arranged themselves into a circular firing squad. While the Dems are scrambling for votes in the June 2 primary, the two Republicans are ahead in the polls as they split the GOP vote, and under the rules of the top-two primaries, they could face off in the November election.
This means that California, one of the bluest states in the country with nearly twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans, could get a Republican governor who would be the equivalent of a Dodgers manager who wears a Yankees jersey in the dugout.
And by the way, if that happens, Republicans will be able to reshuffle regulatory boards, attempt to squeeze the budget, and cause a little chaos, but there still won’t be much to accomplish because of Democratic super-majorities in the Senate and Assembly.
And the target will be set to recall him even before he assumes office. (More on that in a minute.)
Democrats have a way to avoid this humiliation, but they can’t seem to agree on anything right now. Party leaders have asked almost all candidates finishing bottom in the polls to withdraw, but the natural reaction has been, “Why me? I’m no worse than others.”
USC decided to host a debate night, which was a simple enough proposal, but then reneged on the deal by excluding four candidates – four candidates of color – from the invitation list. After this there was a scuffle and the debate was canceled and the attempt to include everyone in the party failed.
So what now?
It’s possible that the Dems will rally around one or two candidates, who will then advance in the polls and face an unimaginable threat – two Republicans facing off. He will face Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco against former Fox TV host Steve Hilton.
It’s also possible that Democrats will play dirty and either spend money to boost one of the two Republican candidates or torpedo one of them. At this point, all they want is for a Democrat to get through the primary, because given the voter registration advantage, that will ensure victory in November.
And then, if that doesn’t work, there’s a recall scenario.
“You could probably shut it down within five or six months,” said Mike Madrid, a longtime California GOP political consultant.
“It definitely will,” said GOP strategist Rob Stutzman, who helped Schwarzenegger oust Gov. Gray Davis from office in the 2003 recall and take his job.
Stutzman said a wealthy Democratic donor could finance the recall campaign. Or public employee unions could put up the money, given that a Republican winner is likely to create a state version of Elon Musk’s ham-handed effort to fire nearly everyone on the federal payroll.
The pitch “will be that Trump is still looming and CA should protest, and the GOP government is a specimen of weird election law. It’s hard to imagine it wouldn’t succeed,” Stutzman said of the recall strategy in an email.
I thought of another approach that Democrats could use to make sure at least one of them is on the ballot in November. Tom Steyer, for many years a leader on one of California’s and the world’s most pressing issues, climate change, has already spent millions of dollars on TV ads running every two minutes to promote him as the best candidate for governor.
They’re so repetitive that you can’t help but improve them.
But if Steyer instead ran ads encouraging Bianco or Hilton to leave the state, everyone would pay attention. Steyer could offer Bianco $10 million in cash to move to Hawaii, and maybe even a house on the beach. He could have purchased a private jet to fly Hilton back to her native Britain. Every day, the number of new ads may increase, until one of them leaves the Golden State.
Wouldn’t this be a better use of Steyer’s money? With this he can also get elected.
Frankly, it wouldn’t be a terrible thing to have some honest reaction against the Democratic establishment in California. It’s not like Governor Gavin Newsom and other Democrats are winning the fight against homelessness, housing shortage, affordability and other major challenges, and voters want more – far more – for their tax dollars.
An experienced, no-nonsense, savvy, fiscally conservative GOP candidate would do the state good.
The problem is that the two Republicans in the race, Bianco and Hilton, are Trump disciples.
In an embarrassing amateur political stunt, Bianco gave the President a kiss and begged the President for support. Confiscating 650,000 ballots from last November’s election to determine whether they were fraudulently counted.
Hilton recently said in an interview with ABC’s Eyewitness News 7 that she believes “everyone supportsTrump’s immigration policies.
Hilton may have missed the news that US-born residents are carrying their passports in case they are targeted because of skin color. Thousands of Californians have joined the resistance. Despite claims, most of those deported do not have criminal records. And even some GOP lawmakers in the state have urged Trump to stop raiding industries that depend on immigrant aid (and are often owned by Republicans).
And by the way, is this a smart time for the GOP candidate in California to do his best Trump impression?
The President’s popularity is down, consumer prices have gone up, he’s shamelessly pardoned drug lords and the Jan. 6 barbarians, after promising to keep us out of wars he believes the presidency is a game of warship, gas prices are sky-high, he just said he’s glad Vietnam War hero and former FBI Director Robert Mueller is dead, and he’s playing golf all day as if everything is fine.
As I said, there’s no big-name character like Schwarzenegger in the running, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t good options. If you like Bianco or Hilton, that’s fine. Otherwise I suggest you read about the other eight:
Steyer, Superintendent. Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former LA Mayor and legislative leader Antonio Villaraigosa, former Representative Katie Porter, former State Attorney General and U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former State Comptroller Betty Yee, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell.
And you better act fast.
There are less than 10 weeks left in the primaries.
steve.lopez@latimes.com
