Beirut– As Israel exchanges fire with Hezbollah, calls for mass evacuation and sends ground troops deep into lebanonIts leaders have hinted at a long-term occupation along the lines of the disastrous conquest most of gaza After the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas.
Israel says it needs to establish a zone of control in the deprived south to save its northern communities, which have faced daily rocket attacks Since the Iran-backed militant Hezbollah group Involved in a massive war. Many in Lebanon fear this could mean open displacement more than one million peopleThe leveling of their homes and loss of territory.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said this week it would create a “security zone” in some places up to the Litani River, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border. He said that troops would destroy homes that he claimed were being used by terrorists, and that residents would not return until northern Israel was secured.
The campaign will mirror the Gaza campaign, which left Israeli forces weakened and the population largely decimated. eastern part of palestine territoryKatz said Tuesday. Israel has said it will not withdraw from the area until Hamas withdraws its weapons under a US-brokered ceasefire agreement.
Katz said, “We have ordered the acceleration of the destruction of Lebanese homes in contact-line villages to neutralize threats to Israeli communities, according to the model of Beit Hanoun and Rafah in Gaza.” Border towns that were largely destroyed.
After a 2024 ceasefire preventing Israel’s last war with Hezbollah, Israeli forces gradually withdrew from southern Lebanon except for five strategic mountain peaks along the border.
Lebanese returned to find that homes, infrastructure and some entire villages The destroyed. Israel said it had destroyed Hezbollah infrastructure that could have been used to launch an October 7-style attack, and it continued to attack militant targets on an almost daily basis after the ceasefire.
Hezbollah resumed its attacks after Israel and the United States launched a war with Iran on February 28, and accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire. Israel accused the Lebanese government of failing to fulfill its pledge to disarm Hezbollah, despite taking unprecedented steps toward criminalizing the group.
In the latest fighting, Israel has launched heavy airstrikes across Lebanon, killing more than 1,000 people – mostly outside the border area – and displacing more than a million. It warned residents to evacuate a wide swath of the south, extending to the Zahrani River, about 55 kilometers (34 miles) from the border.
The Israeli military says it has launched a limited ground operation. Political leaders talk of more ambitious plans.
Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s far-right finance minister and a member of its security cabinet, said this week that the current war must end with “fundamental changes.”
“Litaini should be our new border with the state of Lebanon,” he said.
Israel invaded southern Lebanon in 1982 during the country’s civil war. Hezbollah, founded the same year, waged a guerrilla campaign that eventually ended the Israeli occupation in 2000.
This time, Israel has bombed seven bridges on Litani, on the northern edge of the UN-patrolled buffer zone established after previous conflicts. Israel says Hezbollah was using the bridges to transport fighters and weapons, and that its forces would control the remaining crossings.
Meanwhile, heavy fighting has erupted in the city of Khiyam, the fall of which would cut the south off from Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa valley, another area with a large Hezbollah presence.
Following the bombing of the bridges, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accused Israel of trying to “establish buffer zones, reinforce the reality of occupation, and further Israeli expansion within Lebanese territories to isolate the south from the rest of the country”.
UN peacekeepers say bombings on bridges and ongoing clashes have hampered their operations and put personnel at risk.
“This is the closest fighting activity we have seen to our positions,” said Candice Ardell, a spokeswoman for the U.N. mission, known as UNIFIL. “Bullets, fragments and shrapnel fell on buildings and open areas inside our headquarters.”
Ardel said peacekeepers at observation points have noticed an increased presence of Israeli troops and “engineering assets”, although they have not yet seen any new military positions.
Mohannad Hedge Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East think tank in Beirut, said Israel had already established “different shades” of control.
“The first line of the borders is a no-man’s zone. It’s basically a big parking lot facing Israel,” he said. “There’s nothing there, no movement, nothing.”
Lebanese movement to the north is restricted. During last year’s olive harvest, farmers struggled to access their trees due to regular Israeli attacks and had to be accompanied by Lebanese soldiers and UNIFIL peacekeepers who coordinated with Israel.
Sarit Zehavy, founder and president of the Alma Institute and a retired Israeli military officer, said Israel would likely establish a more extensive zone of control farther north.
He acknowledged that Israel is unlikely to defeat Hezbollah and that it risks maintaining a long-term presence in southern Lebanon.
“But the other option is to take the risk that we will be killed. It’s that simple,” she said.
The Lebanese government has broken a long-standing taboo by proposing direct talks with israel. It has also taken action against Hezbollah since the last war, criminalizing its activities and claiming to have destroyed hundreds of military targets.
But neither the US nor Israel have shown any interest in such talks as they focus on a broader war with Iran.
If negotiations take place, Israel could demand major concessions in exchange for giving up territory taken by force – an updated version of the decades-old “land for peace” formula.
Israel captured parts of Syria after overthrowing Syrian President Bashar Assad Talks are going on with the new government Regarding updated security arrangements in Damascus. In Gaza, it has vowed to hold half the territory until the militant Palestinian Hamas group lays down its arms. Each side has accused the other Violating the ceasefire in October.
Lebanese who fled their homes meanwhile are in limbo – and some fear they will never return.
Ilyas Konsol and his neighbors fled the Christian border village of Alma al-Shaab with the help of UNIFIL. He met his mother, crying in his arms, at a church near Beirut, where funeral services were being held for a resident killed in an Israeli attack.
Konsol said there were no weapons or Hezbollah fighters in his village, but he was nevertheless forced to evacuate.
“Now we don’t know our fate,” he said. “We don’t know whether we will be able to see our homes and villages again.”
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Frankel reported from Jerusalem.
