Yemen’s Houthis have entered the Iran war by launching attacks on Israel, and some analysts warn that their arrival could open another front in the conflict – a potential blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb, a strait that presents another barrier to global goods trade.
The Houthis’ military spokesman, Brigadier-General Yahya Sari, on Saturday announced the Iran-backed group’s first attack on Israel. On Sunday, he said the Houthis had launched a “second military operation” against Israel using cruise missiles and drones and said the Houthis would continue military operations in the coming days until Israel “ceases its attacks and aggression”.
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Does the Houthis’ warning raise the possibility of a broader regional war, especially given the group’s ability to hold Bab al-Mandeb and attack targets beyond Yemen?
Here’s what we know:
Why have the Houthis joined the war?
So far, the Houthis, unlike Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi armed groups, have made no formal announcement of joining the war.
While Iran supports the Houthis as part of its “axis of resistance”, the Houthi religious doctrine does not follow Iran’s supreme leader in the same way as Hezbollah and Iraqi groups do. Iran has formed an “axis of resistance” of like-minded factions to oppose Israel and the United States across the region.
Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said the Houthis joining the war would be welcomed by Iran.
He said, “Speaking of the broader context, we have to keep in mind that over the past months and years, officials in Tehran have said that the Houthis in Yemen are close allies. But their decision-making processes and actions are largely independent.”
“Nevertheless, geopolitically, Iran may view this as an important development,” he said.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ entry into the fighting is “no surprise”, noting that Iranian actions have been in line with their statements.
“Every move is exactly what they have telegraphed, they threatened even before the war when they went to their Gulf Cooperation Council neighbors and warned that this (war) will not happen inside their borders and they are immediately going to turn it into a regional war,” he told Al Jazeera.
But former US diplomat Nabil Khouri told Al Jazeera that the missile attacks launched by the Houthis against Israel were “symbolic participation, not full participation”.
The former deputy chief of mission in Yemen told Al Jazeera, “Because of the discussion of possible tensions, they have fired some missiles as a warning. American troops are coming to the region. There is talk that if there is no deal, there could be a full-scale attack on Iran, the likes of which has not been seen so far.”
“So for all that, the Houthis are saying, ‘We’re still here, and if you’re really going to do everything possible against Iran, we’ll jump right in.’ But at this point, they haven’t gotten into it yet.”
If they do, Khoury said, their most important step will be to block Bab al-Mandeb with boats, mines or missiles.
“All they have to do is shoot at some ships coming through there, and that will stop all commercial shipping through the Red Sea,” he said. “That will be a red line, and then you will see very rapid attacks against Yemen.”
The route of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz has been almost completely closed after Iran targeted ships passing through the waterway. The shutdown has led to a global energy crisis, exerting inflationary pressure on economies around the world. Many countries have been forced to implement fuel rationing and reduce working hours to conserve energy.
Where is Bab el-Mandeb?
The strait is located between Yemen to its north-east and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa to its south-west. It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which further extends to the Indian Ocean. It is 29 km (18 mi) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for incoming and outgoing shipments and is de facto controlled by the Houthis.
It is one of the world’s most important routes for global maritime commodity shipments, particularly for crude oil and other fuels coming from the Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal or the Sumed (Suez-Mediterranean) pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.
Reporting from Sanaa, Yemen, Al Jazeera’s Youssef Mowry said the key card in the war for the Houthis is Bab al-Mandeb.
“The Strait of Hormuz is closed to US and Israeli shipping, if the Houthis also decide to block the Bab al-Mandeb, it is only going to make the situation much worse for Israel economically,” Mowry said.
“At present, shipping is still available for all vessels, including those belonging to the US and Israel. The Yemeni group has not imposed a blockade at this time. The next phase is expected if Israel decides to target Hodeidah port or Yemeni civilian and public infrastructure.”
Could this strait be blocked by the Houthis?
Neither the Houthis nor Iran have commented on whether there are any plans to block one of the world’s busiest sea routes.
But on Wednesday, an unnamed Iranian military official said Iran could open a new front in the Bab al-Mandeb if attacks were made on Iranian territory or its islands, the country’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said.
Then on Saturday, the Houthis’ deputy information minister, Mohammed Mansour, told local media that the group was “conducting this battle in stages, and closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is one of our options”.
Al Jazeera’s Asadi said that so far in the war, Iran has tried to gain leverage through the Strait of Hormuz, but attention is now turning to another major chokepoint, possibly Bab al-Mandeb.
“If it were disrupted, it would provide additional leverage for Iran and its allies amid continued air strikes by Israel and the US,” he said.
Elizabeth Kendall, a Middle East expert and president of Girton College at the University of Cambridge, told Al Jazeera that if the strait was blocked, it would create a “nightmare scenario”.
“Because if you have sanctions on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as sanctions are going up in Bab al-Mandeb, you will really disrupt, if not cripple, trade towards Europe. So it’s a knife’s edge, really, depending on what happens next,” he told Al Jazeera.
“Really attacking the Red Sea at a time when it’s one of the more reliable routes, and the oil is going through Yanbu from Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea, that would be a bit of a game-changer,” he said, referring to Saudi Arabia’s alternative route to export oil.
However, Kendall said that although this was a “sweet spot” for the Houthis, he added that the Yemeni group probably “did not want to provoke a Saudi or indeed broader reaction.”
The Houthis previously carried out attacks in the Red Sea in 2024 when they targeted commercial ships. The Houthis then said they were targeting ships belonging to or bound for Israel in protest against Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.
Ahmed Naghi, senior Yemen analyst for the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ current posture reflects a deliberate calculation rather than restraint born of weakness.
“The Houthis did not attack the Red Sea today or even talk about an escalation in the Red Sea. They attacked Israel directly,” Nagi said.
“That choice matters. The Bab al-Mandeb, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, remains one of the most sensitive arteries in the global economy. About 10 percent of global trade and a significant portion of oil and gas shipments pass through it,” he said.
For now, Nagy suggested the Houthis are linking their moves with Tehran’s broader strategy.
“The objective is to support the Iranians in their negotiations, … and they are betting that perhaps there will be a way out, so there will be no need to use Bab al-Mandeb.”
