The entry of Yemen’s Houthi rebels into the war on Iran’s side has raised fears that the oil crisis affecting global trade could get worse.
Threats from Iranian mines and missiles have largely closed the vital Strait of Hormuz, blocking oil tankers from leaving the Gulf and sending the price of a barrel skyrocketing.
saudi arabiaOne of the world’s largest exporters of oil is instead shipping millions of barrels of crude a day through Bab el Mandeb, another narrow waterway on the other side of the country.
It avoids Hormuz and takes ships further afield iran.
Although they still pass close to Yemen, where the Iranians are supported Houthi rebels They have a stockpile of missiles and drones that could be used to harass shipping – as they did between 2023 and 2025.
If shipping through the Bab el Mandeb Strait – which connects to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal – is disrupted, it could worsen an already poor economic situation due to issues with the Strait of Hormuz.
What have the Houthis done before?
Between November 2023 and January 2025, the Houthis attacked more than 100 merchant ships with missiles and drones.
During the campaign two ships were sunk and four sailors were killed.
Military ships were deployed to the area to protect and safeguard commercial shipping, including the UK’s HMS Diamond Type 45 destroyer.
While there, it shot down a Houthi drone, This also includes one notable operation where it killed seven.
Closing the Bab el Mandeb Strait could have ‘clear and significant’ economic impacts
A complete or partial closure of shipping through the Red Sea would have clear and significant economic impacts both globally and here in the UK.
Even renewed attacks by the militant group without seizing a key shipping route would have a major impact.
We don’t even have to imagine what they might be; We need only look back a few years.
Houthi attacks around Christmas 2023 could result in more dangerous conditions, leading to increased insurance costs.
This cost pressure was further increased by the fact that ships were routed around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, making the journey 10 to 14 days.
As a result, the price of booking slots to ship goods increased.
Longer travel times and altered routes also caused supply chain disruptions, leaving businesses struggling to get goods on ships and shelves on time.
Supply chain problems were also caused by the Ever Given container ship blocking a key entry point to the Red Sea, the Suez Canal.
It was this disruption that became part of the initial surge in price increases in 2021 and 2022 that led to the cost of living crisis.
Major container carriers are changing their routes to avoid the Red Sea
Africa’s largest container port – Tanger Med in Morocco – said on Monday it was preparing for increased calls by ships as tensions continue to rise in the Middle East.
It comes as major container carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM said they are rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, avoiding the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.
Oil tanker traffic in the area. Photo: VesselFinder
Tanger Med managing director Idris Arabi said higher fuel costs due to longer journeys had put further pressure on freight rates.
He said carriers have introduced war-risk, emergency conflict and deviation surcharges of between $1,500 (£1,133) and $3,300 (£2,493) per standard container.
Bab el Mandeb: in numbers
20: How many miles wide is this strait.
25%: Nearly a quarter of global container trade passes through the strait on its way to the Suez Canal.
12%: How much of the world’s total trade typically passes through the Suez Canal.
