Market prices ‘two week war’ after Trump’s comments

The CEO of the global financial advisory giant claims markets are now trading on a ‘two or three week’ war timeline based on Trump’s latest comments, and this is driving global moves. Deavere Group.

Nigel Green’s analysis comes as global markets have grown hopeful that tensions with Iran could ease sooner than previously feared, triggering a sharp revaluation in equities, oil and currencies.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 surged higher overnight, leading a powerful rally in US equities, while Asian markets led the way, with South Korea’s Kospi jumping more than 6%.

Oil, which had risen as high as $119, has since fallen to $105 a barrel as traders reassessed the likelihood of prolonged disruption.

He says: “Based on Trump’s latest comments, markets are now effectively trading on a two- or three-week war scenario.

“Market reaction is now directly factoring into the pricing of equities, oil and currencies.”

The change has been swift and decisive. Comments by US President Donald Trump indicating that Washington could end its campaign within a few weeks, coupled with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s confirmation that talks with Iran will continue, have changed the market narrative in a matter of hours.

Deavere’s CEO says investors are reevaluating expectations “not on confirmed outcomes, but on the perceived narrowing of the conflict window.”

Nigel Green says that markets are now moving ahead of the political process.

“Markets are pricing in reductions faster than diplomacy. Financial markets move in probabilities, not confirmed outcomes, and right now the possibility of a small conflict is being priced in aggressively.”

Oil fluctuations remain at the center of this revaluation. Crude’s sharp decline is already stoking expectations around inflation and interest rates, fueling the rally in equities and reinforcing a broader shift in sentiment across asset classes.

“The oil move is doing the heavy lifting.

Nigel Green comments, “As crude oil falls, inflation expectations decline and rate pressures ease, which is why equities are reacting so strongly.”

This dynamic is creating a powerful but potentially fragile rally. US stocks recently recorded their strongest session in months, showing how sharply sentiment has changed.

Just a few days ago, the market was bracing for a surge in growth and a renewed inflation push. Now, the situation is rapidly shifting towards a more supportive macro backdrop.

The scale of the move also shows that investors were on the defensive and are now moving back into risk assets as geopolitical fears subside.

This type of repositioning could accelerate gains in the short term, especially in equity markets that are sensitive to changes in rate expectations and growth outlooks.

Asian markets are already reflecting this shift in global capital flows. The sharp rise in the Kospi points to a broader re-risking trend, with investors refocusing toward sectors and regions that stand to benefit most from improving global growth expectations and easing geopolitical tensions.

The chief executive says the pattern highlights how interconnected global markets are.

“Movements in one asset class are now transmitted throughout the system almost instantly.

“Oil affects inflation expectations, which affects the rate outlook, and which drives equity valuations. It’s all happening in real time,” he says.

Currency markets have also started adjusting. As the geopolitical risk premium diminishes and inflation expectations decline, safe-haven demand may begin to provide support for the dollar if current conditions persist. This adds another layer to the ongoing global reassessment.

Despite optimism, the underlying condition remains unresolved. No formal agreement has been reached and diplomatic efforts are still ongoing. This makes the market highly sensitive to any change in rhetoric or developments on the ground.

Nigel Green warns that the current trajectory depends too much on a single assumption being true.

He says, “This rally is built on a set deadline that has not been confirmed. If that deadline slips or the situation worsens, markets will have to reevaluate just as quickly.”

He concluded: “The main driver at the moment is Trump’s latest challenge and his projected duration of the conflict.

“Markets are trading aggressively on this sentiment. If this holds, risk assets will extend gains. If it does not, the reversal will be equally sharp.”