An electric vehicle (EV) is left to charge at a charging station in Tehran on February 23, 2026.
flour edge AFP | getty images
The growing crisis in the Middle East is expected to push drivers to abandon traditional internal combustion engine vehicles in favor of EVs, analysts told CNBC, although early evidence suggests it will be a gradual gearshift.
The Iran war has severely disrupted oil exports through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). It has underlined the extent to which the world is deeply dependent on fragile fossil fuel trade routes, while rising oil and gas prices have jolted energy markets and raised fears of widespread inflation.
Various car selling platforms exist in the US and Europe informed Consumer interest in EVs has surged since the war began in late February. The growing trend also comes as a large portion of the legacy car industry returns to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
AutoTrader, an online vehicle marketplace, informed On March 26, inquiries about buying new EVs increased by 28% and inquiries about buying used EVs increased by 15% since the start of the war in Iran on February 28. EV specialist Octopus Electric Vehicles said it had seen inquiries for EV leasing on March 25. 36% increase Since the beginning of the conflict.
But American automakers ford motor, General Motors and jeep owner Stellantis Due to declining consumer demand and changes in the political landscape, all have changed direction on EV strategies, combined booking billions of dollars in write-offs and restructuring costs.
It’s actually quite disappointing how we talk about EVs again as if we didn’t even know it was a structural solution to weaning our transportation system off oil.
Julia Poliskanova
Senior Director of Vehicle and E-Mobility Supply Chain in Transport and Environment
Stefan Michulski, senior advisor at JATO Dynamics, said that although the situation was still developing, it was already clear that the fallout from the Iran war could impact EV demand.
Owning a battery electric vehicle (BEV) has become more attractive to drivers covering a lot of mileage, Michulski said, noting that a sharp rise in oil prices has made traditional gasoline cars more expensive.
Michulski said switching to EVs could also give homes an additional layer of energy independence, though he cautioned that it would be important not to “oversimplify” the situation. He noted that if inflation and supply chain costs continue to rise, the overall economic environment could soften, for example, as these broader pressures affect all powertrains – electric or combustion.
“To cut it short and summarize: Yes, higher oil prices and a renewed focus on energy security are likely to provide a medium-term boost to BEV demand,” Michulski told CNBC by email.
“But it is best to understand this as an incremental change rather than a sudden market-wide rally. Electricity price risks, technological advances on the combustion side and general economic uncertainty all act as counterweights,” he said.
Increase in car buyers considering EVs
Consumers may be more likely to consider all-electric vehicles amid higher gas prices, but changing purchasing behavior from traditional vehicles to EVs may be slow, according to Erin Keating, senior director of economic and industry insights for Cox Automotive.
Cox expects gas prices to remain elevated for six months or more in order to significantly increase consumer purchasing habits for EVs, executives said during a call on March 25. According to Keating, barriers like cost, charging infrastructure and range anxiety – the fear of running out of power before the EV reaches its destination – will remain.
Cox reports that the average price of a new EV in the US during the first quarter was $55,300. This is lower than recent quarters but still $48,768 more than non-EV models.
US EV sales remain low despite high gas prices. Cox estimates U.S. EV sales will decline 28% to 212,600 units during the first quarter.
However, electrified vehicle sales, including EVs and hybrid vehicles, continue to grow as automakers shift their focus from EVs to hybrids, and make compromises to meet consumer expectations for fuel economy.
GM logo on a water tank at the General Motors Ramos Arizpe assembly plant in Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila state, Mexico, Jan. 19, 2026.
Antonio Ojeda reuters
Sales of electrified vehicles, led by Toyota hybrids, are expected to reach a record 26% of new vehicles sold during the first quarter, according to Cox.
Early indications from CarMax on Edmunds.com show that a growing number of car buyers are considering electrified vehicles amid higher gas prices.
“Fuel prices have long influenced how drivers think about their next vehicle as one of the most visible costs of car ownership. But whether the latest increases translate into a meaningful shift toward electrified vehicles depends less on the price of gasoline and more on how long consumers expect fuel costs to rise,” Edmunds said in a statement.
Even faster changes?
In Europe and Asia, the Iran war energy shock is expected to trigger a more profound shift toward EVs than previous fossil fuel crises.
“It’s really quite disappointing how we again talk about EVs as if we didn’t know this is a structural measure to wean our transportation system off oil,” Julia Poliskanova, senior director of vehicle and e-mobility supply chain at campaign group Transport & Environment, told CNBC by video call.
“I think this crisis may be different. In the past, there would be a crisis and then very quickly the crisis would be over, we could go back to business as usual, and the oil and gas are flowing.”
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Ford Executive Chairman Bill Ford (L), Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, Ford CEO Jim Farley (2nd R) and plant manager Corey Williams (R) during a visit to Ford Motor Company’s River Rouge complex in Dearborn, Michigan on January 13, 2026.
Mandel Ngan | AFP | getty images
However, some damage reported to Middle East energy infrastructure means it could take years for energy supplies to come back online, Poliskanova said.
an analysis published A study earlier this month by Transport & Environment found that electric cars were already cutting the EU’s oil imports, noting that about 8 million EVs in the EU would save about 46 million barrels of oil in 2025. This equates to approximately 3 billion euros ($3.45 billion) in avoided oil import costs.
Meanwhile, in the context of the Middle East conflict, the analysis said petrol drivers were expected to be five times more at risk of higher oil prices than EV owners.
Poliskanova said EV growth drivers in Asia are likely to be to see a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, particularly in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, which benefit from affordable models from Chinese carmakers.
“We are likely to see an even more rapid shift away from oil in some of these economies, which means that the things we are discussing today in Europe, like biofuels and hybrids, look really stupid and disconnected from reality,” Poliskanova said.
A spokesman for the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, declined to comment.
