Budapest, Hungary — BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) – Hungary The elections on April 12 will be a shock blow as many in the EU expect a defeat for nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is widely seen as jeopardizing the future of the 27-nation bloc.
Orban is the EU’s longest-serving leader lagged behind in the elections. His 16-year hold on power has tested the EU’s system of governance, designed to ensure peace through economic and political integration after the devastation of the world wars. his rival Peter Magyar told the Associated Press If elected, he will improve Hungary’s relations with the European Union.
The EU faces huge threats: the rise of right-wing populism, the struggle ukraine and this middle eastRussian sabotage attemptsChinese economic expansion and a White House i.e. Building on decades of transatlantic cooperation.
But the EU’s response to Orbán’s veto has been limited. Lawmakers and analysts say he has used his veto power and has a deep understanding of how the bloc distributes money to members to consolidate its power and gain outside influence by disrupting decision-making to extract concessions.
“He entered a club, read the rules, figured out how he could rig the rules, and then started becoming a free rider and blackmailing all the other members of the club,” said Daniel Hegedans, deputy director of the Berlin-based Institute for European Politics. “The question is how long will club members tolerate this?”
It didn’t start that way. After the Cold War, Hungary joined the European Union in 2004 along with nine other countries, the largest enlargement to date. There was widespread optimism for Hungary, said Jim Townsend, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
But after economic crises, Orban came to power by promising prosperity to rich and poor alike, said Gábor Scheuering, a former Hungarian lawmaker who now teaches at Georgetown University in Qatar. He also built relationships with conservative politicians across the caucus.
Orbán began to denigrate the EU, even while receiving he frequently compared Brussels to the Soviet Union. huge amounts of EU moneyand resist pressure reverse democratic retreat.
From 2014 to 2022, “Hungary was one of the largest beneficiaries of EU funds,” Scheering said. “Orbán can navigate the EU system really well: get all the money and get away with his political machinations.”
The EU became frustrated with Orbán’s failures to ensure judicial independence and media freedom, and to rein in corruption. it started billions of funding stopped Budapest in 2022 on violation of rule-of-law standards.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Orban frequently used his veto power to support Kiev and block Moscow’s efforts to sanction it. He was seen close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Last month, when Orban retracted A deal was struck in December As for providing Ukraine with a loan of 90 billion euros ($104 billion), famously amiable European Council President Antonio Costa was clearly angry: “No one can blackmail EU institutions,” he said.
As many see it, a thorn in the EU’s side is that major decisions require consensus among its members. Critics say this has prevented the faction from taking stronger action on other important issues, such as the war in Gaza.
German lawmaker Daniel Freund said the internal European Parliament report shows Orbán has vetoed far more votes than any other leader in EU history.
“It’s staggering. No one can come close to it,” Freund said. “This is the biggest design flaw in the EU that they have exposed.”
Orbán’s veto has led to calls to reform the bloc’s founding treaties to shore up support against future authoritarians – or Orbán himself, if he wins the election.
There are several ways to do this, but each has its limitations.
The EU could reduce the number of issues that require a unanimous vote. This would allow measures to be passed by a simple majority of the 27 national leaders representing about two-thirds of the bloc’s population.
Hegedens said the European Commission could “take even more drastic measures” by tailoring sanctions to address specific violations of EU rules.
Some politicians have also proposed invoking Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, a legal measure that could revoke Hungary’s voting rights in the bloc.
However, this would require the consent of all other EU leaders, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said he would veto such a measure.
There are other tools that the EU can use.
The European Commission has not approved Hungary’s bid to withdraw about 16 billion euros ($18.4 billion) as part of an EU program to boost members’ defense capabilities. 18 other countries that submitted plans to use the funds have been approved.
If Orbán is re-elected, the EU could use that funding as a bargaining chip to extract concessions, such as lifting the veto on 90 billion euros for Ukraine, Hegedans said. But there is no guarantee that Hungary won’t find other policies to veto once it gets the money.
“What will the EU offer in two to three or four months when the next strategic decision comes and Orbán is blocked again?” Hegedons said.
Orbán’s conduct has prompted a re-examination of how the EU admits new members and monitors current members.
The ongoing negotiations with Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine to join the EU are being overshadowed by Hungary’s tumultuous experience.
In February, European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said that the 12 countries, including Hungary, that joined the EU from 2004–2007 “led to a new era of stability for our continent and an impressive level of economic convergence.”
But without naming Hungary or any other country, Koss said the lesson learned from 2004 is that “we need safeguards that ensure that new members follow the rules.”
“If countries move backward on our fundamental principles such as democracy and the rule of law, the safeguards must stop,” the commissioner said, adding: “No Trojan Horses.”
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McNeil reported from Brussels.
