United States Vice President J.D. Vance is traveling to Budapest to drum up support for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose Fidesz party faces its toughest election in more than a decade.
The White House announced last week that Vance would arrive in Hungary on Tuesday and hold two days of bilateral meetings.
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In February, US President Donald Trump supported right-wing leader Orban. ahead of Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary elections, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the country that month to show Help.
Kim Lane Shepell, a sociology professor at Princeton University in the US who has spent years as an analyst and critic of the Orbán government, says the trip is meant to underline the close ties between Trump and his Hungarian counterpart.
“Orbán will make a big deal out of the fact that he’s got Trump’s endorsement. And that’s why Vance is coming,” he said, adding that he doubted Vance’s visit would have a big impact on the outcome of the election.
“If you look at the Hungarian polls, they show the opposition with a lead of 8 to 12 percent, with some recent polls as high as 20 percent. A visit from the relatively low-profile US vice president is not going to change that.”
strong opposition
Orbán’s 16-year term in office has been marked by the erosion of the independence of institutions such as the judiciary and the media, as well as reforms that critics say have tilted the electoral system in favor of Orbán and his Fidesz party.
But despite what the opposition has called an extremely unbalanced electoral environment, most polls show Orban, 62, trailing 45-year-old opposition leader Peter Magyar and his Tisza party.
Magyar is a former high-ranking Fidesz official who broke with the party two years ago and has emerged as a popular voice against Orbán’s rule.
His campaign has focused on corruption, deteriorating social services, economic conditions, and Orbán’s combative relationship with the EU, often focusing on immigration and support for Ukraine.
The EU suspended billions of euros of funding for Hungary in 2022, citing democratic backlash and declining judicial independence.
Magyar has promised more cordial relations with the European bloc as well as reforms that could lead to the reinstatement of suspended funding.
While Orbán has portrayed the opposition as a destabilizing force that will sell out the country’s national interests on behalf of Ukraine and the EU, Magyar’s right-wing politics means he will see little change in policies on issues such as immigration.
“Magyar is centre-right; he basically has a lot of faith in what Orbán has done, except for corruption. In terms of the EU, he is a bit Eurosceptical but wants to get the money back,” Scheppel said.
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While Orbán’s approach to consolidating power and his embrace of far-right politics has strained his relationships in Europe, they have made him a source of inspiration for the US far right and key members of the Trump administration, such as J.D. Vance.
Hungary has previously hosted the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an annual summit where individuals and groups from across the US and allies in other countries gather to discuss the future of the conservative movement.
When CPAC convened in Budapest in 2024, Trump sent a video praising Orbán for “proudly fighting on the front lines of the battle to save Western civilization.”
Shared anger toward Muslims, immigrants and centers of liberal politics like universities has helped strengthen that bond, and Vance himself has enjoyed particularly close relations with Orbán’s government.
When he was selected as Trump’s running mate in July 2024, Orbán’s political director shared a photo of himself with Vance, captioned: “A Trump-Vance administration feels perfect.”
Orbán’s Hungary has been at the center of the Trump administration’s transfer policy toward Europe, aligning itself strongly with far-right parties and immigration restrictionists in countries such as France and Germany.
Scheppel says Orbán’s ties to the Trump administration and status as a symbol of the global far right may be of limited use in an election that focuses mostly on domestic issues.
But he said more concrete steps, such as the Trump administration’s pledge of US financial aid if Orbán wins, could boost his chances in the final days of the race.
“The big thing to see is that, when Orban came to the US recently, Trump seemed to be promising a fiscal safety net if Orban won,” Sheppell said, noting that the US had taken similar steps ahead of 2025 midterm elections in Argentina to strengthen right-wing ally Javier Meili, who is now the country’s president.
“Trump hasn’t made any formal promises like that, and now he’s denied that he made any specific promises. But Orbán people think Trump will support them if he wins the election,” Scheppele said. “If Vance makes an announcement like this, it could be a real game-changer.”
