Agricultural Market Update: In Review First Quarter 2026

What happened to phosphate and potash prices in Q1?

according to data from world bankIn the first months of the year diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices fell slightly in January to US$619.20 per metric ton, then rose to US$626.60 in February.

Although their March data has not been released at the time of writing, Trading Economics Shows On March 27, the price of DAP rose to US$692.50 per metric ton. Meanwhile, prices monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has climbed even higher, reaching US$770 per metric ton in the US and US$990 in Europe.

In the case of potash, World Bank data shows prices started the year at US$358.30 per metric ton in January, then rose to US$366.00 in February. However, fertilizer prices are also surged in MarchTrading at US$488 per metric tonne, their highest level since February 2023.

What factors affected phosphate in Q1?

The big story of the quarter was the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran, which began on February 28.

The military action plunged the region into chaos and forced Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route into and out of the region. While oil and gas and their rising prices grabbed most of the headlines crippled shipment of phosphate from Saudi Arabia, the world’s third largest supplier.

In an email to Investing News Network, Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, explained what impact this is having on the market.

“The loss of Saudi Arabia’s phosphate exports, as well as ammonia exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran, is having a major impact on global markets. Saudi Arabia is the third largest exporter of DAP/MAP, and they are “stuck” behind the Strait. So much NH3 and sulfur is also stuck behind the Strait, which is having an adverse/accelerating impact as both are the largest variable rate inputs for phosphate production. Are,” he said.

This worsened an already tight supply and demand situation after China, the world’s top phosphate supplier, imposed export restrictions several years ago.

The restrictions were put in place to prioritize domestic demand, but created significant difficulties for foreign importers who had to compete for limited supply, ultimately leading to higher prices. There were expectations in the year that China would ease some export restrictions; However, they have went in the other direction.

“At the beginning of the year, the government said it would not allow urea or DAP/MAP exports until August. They have taken it a step further and banned exports of any type of fertilizer. They have extended their restrictions,” Linville said.

India was a key demand driver last year as it tried to replenish reserves that had been depleted in previous years. By October, the country was Stockpile construction continuesBecause farmers started looking for alternatives due to difficulties in purchasing phosphate for their fields.

Despite the ban on sugar exports and disruption in supply due to the war in the Middle East, the Indian government said it is in a good position with adequate reserves.

S&P Global reported On March 9 it was reported that fertilizer stockpiles had increased by more than a third compared to the previous year, including 2.51 million metric tons of phosphate. The government also said it was “benefiting from the low consumption phase and aggressive advance stocking strategy.”

Consumers elsewhere may not be so lucky, and may face rising prices as much of the Northern Hemisphere enters the spring growing season, but it is unclear what effect this will have on farmers.

“Some believe farmers are shying away from high-cost crops like corn because of high prices. Others are saying there will be demand, but waiting until the last minute to buy. So far, we haven’t seen signs of a big cut in demand, but there’s still time for that to happen,” Linville said.

He further said that while some farmers were able to lock orders before the war started, others who were not so lucky will likely wait until the last minute. These delays have impacted retailers, who are waiting for orders before committing to higher phosphate prices should demand not be met.

“The whole system is lagging behind, and with spring almost here, just-in-time demand is going to meet very expensive just-in-time logistics,” Linville said.

What factors influenced potash in Q1?

Potash has been stable, the market is well balanced.

“Sustainability is the key trend,” Linville said.

“Global prices still remain very stable and for the most part well priced compared to current grain prices. Without any new major global events it is difficult to see the market breaking higher or lower in the near term.”

While tariffs have been a concern since Donald Trump took office in January 2025, their price has already been set.

Concern has increased after the US Supreme Court “Liberation Day” tariffs overturned New tariffs may be imposed, so far, they have not affected Canadian potash.

Most potash exports to the United States fall under the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement, which Trump signed during his first term. The potash flowing south from Canada represents 90 percent of America’s imports.