Islamabad, Pakistan – With significant differences in Iranian and US stances persisting, Pakistan is aiming for what officials describe as a realistic – if modest – outcome from talks between the two warring countries that begin in Islamabad on Saturday.
The objective: to find enough common ground for United States and Iranian negotiators to continue negotiations.
On Friday, US Vice President JD Vance left Washington for Islamabad, where he will lead the US team, which will also include President Donald Trump’s chief negotiator Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Although Iran has not formally confirmed its representatives at the talks, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are expected to lead Tehran’s team.
The high-level talks will come days after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, and will be held exactly six weeks after the US and Israel launched a war on Iran with the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28.
Experts and sources associated with the mediation effort said there is little hope that any major breakthrough will be achieved on Saturday. But by setting a more realistic border – an agreement in Islamabad to continue intensive talks aimed at finding a lasting peace settlement – Pakistan hopes it can help build on a ceasefire that could lead to a collective sigh of relief globally.
Zameer Akram, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United Nations, told Al Jazeera, “Pakistan has succeeded in bringing them together. We made them sit at one table. Now it is for the parties to decide whether they are willing to make the necessary sacrifices to reach a final solution.”
The goal now will be to ensure an agreement to continue negotiations between the US and Iran, he said.
‘Proximity Format’
The US and Iranian delegations will land at Noor Khan Air Base outside Islamabad and then proceed to the Serena Hotel, where they will stay and where talks will take place.
Officials said that although both the teams will be in the same hotel, they will not come face to face for talks.
Instead, they would sit in two separate rooms, and Pakistani officials would switch messages between them.
In diplomatic jargon such talks are known as proximity talks.
Pakistan’s experience with such talks is not new. In 1988, Islamabad itself participated in the negotiations of the Geneva Accords on Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, where UN-mediated indirect talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan led to a historic agreement.
Akram, who represented Pakistan at the United Nations in Geneva from 2008 to 2015, said history is relevant.
“The proximity dialogue has been used before. Pakistan itself participated in a dialogue on the Afghan issue in Geneva in 1988,” he told Al Jazeera. “If the parties did not trust Pakistan, they would not be here. The measure of success should be an agreement to continue this process in search of a solution. This will not happen in a few days.”
building diplomatic momentum
In the days between the announcement of the ceasefire on 7 April and the arrival of delegations in Islamabad, world leaders moved quickly to register support.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the ceasefire and appreciated Pakistan’s role. Kazakhstan, Romania and the United Kingdom also issued statements supporting Islamabad’s mediation.
French President Emmanuel Macron called Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to congratulate him, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also spoke to the Pakistani leader.
Analysts say these calls were not only expressions of goodwill but also signals of international support, aimed at strengthening Pakistan’s hand in prodding both Washington and Tehran to deliver results.
Sharif spoke to eight world leaders, including the Emir of Qatar, the Presidents of France and Turkey, the Prime Ministers of Italy and Lebanon, the King of Bahrain and the Chancellors of Germany and Austria.
Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who is also the Deputy Prime Minister, held talks with more than a dozen counterparts in the last two days and held a personal meeting with China’s ambassador to Islamabad.
Overall, Pakistan’s leadership made or received more than 25 diplomatic contacts in about 48 hours.
Salma Malik, professor of strategic studies at Quaid-e-Azam University, said the scale of participation reflected Pakistan’s confidence in its role.
“Both main parties showed confidence in Pakistan to act as a neutral agent, this is the first and most important litmus test for any mediating country and Pakistan passed it,” he told Al Jazeera.
lebanon problem
The most immediate threat to Saturday’s talks lies outside the negotiating room.
Iran has described Israeli attacks on Lebanon as a direct challenge to the ceasefire. Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who spoke to Sharif earlier this week, warned that continued attacks would render talks futile.
Hours after the ceasefire was announced, Israel began its most extensive bombing of Lebanon since the beginning of the conflict, killing more than 300 people in Beirut and southern Lebanon in a single day.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that if attacks continued, Tehran could abandon the ceasefire entirely.
Sharif strongly condemned Israel’s actions in talks with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on 9 April.
There remains controversy over whether Lebanon is within the scope of the ceasefire. Pakistan has said the ceasefire extends to the wider region, including Lebanon, as reflected in Sharif’s statement earlier this week.
Washington has taken a different approach. US Vice President JD Vance, who will lead the US delegation, said in Budapest that Lebanon remains outside the terms of the ceasefire, a point echoed by President Donald Trump and the White House.
Former Pakistani envoy Seema Baloch said the matter ultimately depends on Washington.
“Lebanon is important and Israel will use it to play a spoiler role,” he told Al Jazeera. “It is now America’s decision whether or not it will allow Israel, which is not sitting at the negotiating table, to play that role.”
However, there are limited signs of tensions easing.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel is ready to begin direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” with a focus on disarming Hezbollah and reaching a peace deal.
This announcement was made after American pressure. Trump told NBC that he had asked Netanyahu to “pay less attention” to Lebanon.
However, Netanyahu clarified that there is no ceasefire in Lebanon, saying Israel would continue attacking Hezbollah even as talks progress.
Former Pakistan Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir said that Lebanon will remain within the ceasefire limits.
“Lebanon is very much part of the ceasefire, as was mentioned in the prime minister’s statement,” he told Al Jazeera. “The Israelis may be willing to maintain pressure on Lebanon, but not for long, if the US is willing to end hostilities, as it seems likely.”
blocks
Beyond Lebanon, several other obstacles remain.
Washington is expected to push for verifiable sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program, including limits on enrichment and the removal of stockpiled material.
In return, Tehran is demanding full sanctions relief, formal recognition of its right to enrich uranium and compensation for wartime damages.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes in peacetime, remains a major pressure point where Iran has the ability to disrupt maritime traffic.
Bashir said that there could be agitation on some of these issues.
“There could be an opening on the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control. Iran will not give up the right to enrichment. If nothing else, the ceasefire deadline should be extended,” he told Al Jazeera.
Muhammad Shoaib, a professor of international relations in Islamabad, said progress would depend on the movement on key issues.
He told Al Jazeera, “Both sides agree on the need to continue or even extend the ceasefire, while in principle agreeing on key points such as respect for the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s right to enrichment and sovereignty would suggest that the first round is meaningful and successful.”
The regional environment has also been shaped by the harsh rhetoric from some of Iran’s Gulf neighbors.
The United Arab Emirates, which faced hundreds of missile and drone attacks during the conflict, has been the most vocal.
Its ambassador to Washington wrote in The Wall Street Journal that a ceasefire alone would not be enough and called for a comprehensive outcome addressing Iran’s “full range of threats”.
Meanwhile, Bahrain introduced a resolution in the UN Security Council on April 7 calling for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The measure received 11 votes in favor but was vetoed by Russia and China, while Pakistan and Colombia abstained.
Despite being closely involved in pre-talk diplomacy, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are not expected to have a formal presence at the talks. The four countries held meetings in Riyadh and later in Islamabad with the aim of bringing a halt to hostilities.
Israel, a party in the conflict, will also not be represented. Like most Muslim-majority countries, Pakistan does not recognize Israel and has no diplomatic relations with it.
a little relaxation
However, there are tentative signs of tensions easing ahead of Saturday’s talks.
On Friday, as he departed Washington, Vance said the US team was “looking forward to dialogue”.
The US Vice President said, “We think it will be positive. We will certainly see. As the President of the United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we are certainly willing to extend an open hand.” “If they try to play with us, they will find that the team that talks is not as receptive. So we will try to have positive conversations.”
He also said Trump had given “some clear guidelines” to the US team.
Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister spoke to his Iranian counterpart for the first time since the war began.
And Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said on April 8 that discussions could continue for up to 15 days, suggesting preparation for a longer process.
Former envoy Akram said that the criteria for success are clear.
“They need to agree that they will find a solution, and that in itself will be a step in the right direction,” he told Al Jazeera. “Finding a long-term solution will take time. It won’t happen in a few days.”
Malik, an academic in Islamabad, said Pakistan’s expectations remain modest.
He told Al Jazeera, “What Pakistan hopes for is breathing space, an opportunity for peace. It is not expecting anything big. It is a small wish, but it will be very difficult to realise.”
