A general view of Navigator Terminals, an oil storage depot along the River Thames in London, England on March 10, 2026.
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The fluctuating price of Dated Brent, the global benchmark for real-world barrels of crude oil, has prompted energy analysts to warn that intense tensions in the physical oil market are showing no signs of easing amid concerns over a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.
As energy market participants continue to monitor shipping disruption through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, an unprecedented gap has emerged between Dated Brent and Brent. front-month Brent futuresSuggestions are that supplies will remain tight for some time.
The spot price of dated Brent, which refers to physical cargo with delivery dates from 10 days ahead to a month ahead, hit $131.97 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, according to data compiled by Platts.
That’s up 7% from the previous session, but down from a record high of $144.42 hit on Tuesday, just before the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.
Dated Brent is valued based on bids, offers and trades in the open physical spot market, meaning it reflects the real-world price of crude oil.
Meanwhile, Brent crude futures for June delivery were seen trading 0.6% higher at $96.51 a barrel on Friday morning.
“The price of Brent at $144 is not just a price record. This is the physical market telling you that real barrels are becoming scarce. The market is pricing in scarcity, not just risk,” Andrejka Bernatova, founder and CEO of Dynamics Corporation III, told CNBC by email.
“Even as the numbers have declined since the ceasefire, the underlying tensions have not gone away, and frankly, I think the market is getting ahead of itself,” Bernatova said.
“The Strait of Hormuz is almost completely blocked, and this ceasefire is the most fragile of all. Unless those flows are actually increasing again, the $144 print is less of a historical anomaly and more of a preview.”
About 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Shipping and maritime experts have told CNBC that traffic through the vital energy artery will not return to normal any time soon.
“If refiners delay purchases in anticipation of further price declines while material flows remain disrupted, the product squeeze could worsen even as tensions ease,” said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at Rystad Energy. Said In a research note published on Wednesday.
He added, “The price of Brent flat has fallen, but the immediate physical spread is likely to remain sticky, tanker rates remain high, and sour crude buyers will continue to pay to protect limited global supply off the Gulf.”
“This suggests that perceived geopolitical risk may diminish faster than operational risk,” Shah said.
market disruption
Morgan Stanley strategists said the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has caused a much more violent blow to physical Brent-linked barrels than the main financial contract, Brent futures.
“The Dated Brent market estimates what an instant physical sea barrel is worth in Northwest Europe. ICE Brent, on the other hand, is a standardized, centrally cleared futures contract whose final cash settlement is linked to the Forward Brent cargo market through a defined expiration process,” Morgan Stanley commodity strategist Martijn Rats said in a research note published Tuesday.
“Those two prices are linked, but they don’t measure the same risk at the same point in time or in the series.”
The market dislocation shows the Brent system where the shock is most acute and immediate, Ratts said.
A fuel station attendant refuels a motorcycle at a petrol pump in Guwahati, India on March 11, 2026.
Nurfoto | Nurfoto | getty images
Pavel Molchanov, senior analyst at Raymond James Investments, said this latest incident of supply disruption has broken down the traditional trading pattern between different grades of crude oil.
“This reflects unprecedented stress and uncertainty in the oil market,” Molchanov told CNBC by email.
As some examples of this, Molchanov said Brent crude futures typically trade $3 to $5 a barrel higher than US crude futures. West Texas Intermediate Futures over the past decade, although WTI briefly exceeded premiums of more than $10 during the Middle East crisis.
Russian Ural crude prices, meanwhile, reached levels $30 above Brent in recent weeks, Molchanov said, noting that Urals has traded at a deep discount to Brent since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
Molchanov also reported that Saudi Arabia had raised the premium over the Oman/Dubai benchmark for Arab light crude to $19.50, adding that the premium had “never before” exceeded the $10 level.
