When President Donald Trump endorsed Representative Julia Letlow against Senator Bill Cassidy, many thought she had a clear path to the upper chamber.
But three months after Trump pushed Letlow into the field, the race stands as a tight three-way contest between him, Cassidy and state Treasurer John Fleming, with all of them having a realistic chance of making the runoff in mid-May.
Some Louisiana Republicans are reconsidering whether Cassidy can survive despite his split with the president, including a 2021 vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial and his lower poll numbers than Letlow and Fleming. Others are wondering whether Letlow could be caught in competition with Fleming, which could prove more challenging to his chances.
She has been outspent by Cassidy on the airwaves, still has less name ID than her opponents, and faces another candidate in Fleming with her MAGA appeal and her own network of support. That makes it harder for her to capitalize on Trump’s support and rally the base behind her as she runs her first statewide campaign under a compressed timeline.
The outcome will be a test for Trump, whose interference in the Louisiana Senate race could reveal the strength of his support at a time when his approval is at an all-time low — as well as the feasibility of his efforts to retaliate against Republicans who oppose him.
“The Trump endorsement is not a final step. Cassidy was ready for that,” said GOP state Rep. Mike Behm, who has not yet publicly endorsed either candidate. “He had defined her before she even introduced herself.”
Public polling paints a bleak picture of the primary, with late March polls showing Letlow holding a slight lead. A recent memorandum Letlow’s campaign highlighted an internal poll that showed him leading with 29 percent, followed by Fleming with about 24 percent and Cassidy with about 20 percent. It also includes possible runoff scenarios that show Cassidy leading by 50 percent to 24 percent and a head-to-head tie with Fleming statistically.
“We’re in the middle of a dogfight,” said Cassidy’s colleague Mark Harris. “Everyone expected her to get a big lead and we would all race from behind. But to be honest, I think they weren’t prepared for this race.”
Letlow’s campaign claims he has the best pace in the race. she’s been supported by the Jefferson Parish Republican Executive Committee, one of the largest GOP groups in the state, and is backed by Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who has clashed with Cassidy and taken the unusual step of choosing her over a Republican incumbent.
“We’re talking about an incumbent who is underwater,” said a Letlow campaign aide. “Julia is on the rise. Her lead is growing as people realize she has the president’s support.”
Trump and his allies haven’t done much beyond initial support of Letlow — at least not yet. The Robert F. Kennedy Jr.-aligned Make America Healthy Again PAC has pledged to spend $1 million to promote Letlow and oust Cassidy, who has been openly skeptical of the health secretary. But Louisiana Republicans are still waiting to see whether the president’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., will spend any of the $300 million in cash it has.
MAGA Inc. has so far remained tight-lipped about its midterm spending plans and whether it will give money to Letlow for the primary or runoff.
MAGA Inc. Spokespeople for the PAC and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Cassidy, excited by the huge war chest, has been outspending Letlow for several weeks. His campaign, along with the Louisiana Freedom Fund, an outside group supporting the senator, has invested more than $14 million in the race with ads, the majority of which are attacks against Letlow. Letlow’s campaign and outside groups combined have spent just $4.6 million, according to the tracking service AdImpact. The Federal Election Commission’s fundraising report next week will reveal her fundraising abilities and whether she will be able to keep pace with Cassidy’s race.
Letlow’s ads have focused almost exclusively on his endorsement from Trump rather than attacks on Cassidy. But he is after her badly.
In recent days, Cassidy’s campaign has highlighted a video of Letlow praising diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives during an interview for the job as president of the University of Louisiana at Monroe in 2020. They are also attacking him for trading shares in defense contractors amid the war in Iran.
In response to Cassidy’s DEI attacks, Letlow pointed to his support for Biden’s economic stimulus package that included equity provisions to help disadvantaged schools and businesses impacted by the pandemic.
letlow told a local news outlets The DEI initiative at the university in March was “presented to us as something that would help students achieve the American dream,” but they realized that promoting diversity had been “hijacked by the radical left and turned into ideology.”
The Letlow aide said, “Cassidy’s problem in this race is that he’s trying to make it an ideological race. The problem with that framework is that he’s spent the last four years trying to undermine the president.” drop out Mar-a-Lago was raided by the FBI in an investigation into its handling of classified documents.
Part of Letlow’s challenge is that she comes from a rural district in northern Louisiana, far from the population centers of New Orleans and Baton Rouge. His district is more culturally associated with the Deep South and is a far cry from the Catholic, Cajun, and Creole influences throughout the southern part of the state.
“People haven’t met him. He’s almost invisible as a candidate,” said East Baton Rouge Parish President Woody Jenkins, who has not decided whom he supports.
“When you’re meeting someone new to politics and you hear all these bad things, maybe that’s your first impression, but you start having second thoughts,” he said. “And he is tireless in it.”
And then there’s the Fleming factor.
“There are two runoff spots open,” said Caddo Parish GOP Chairman Matt Kay, who described himself as “anybody other than a Cassidy voter.” Kay said he was initially leaning toward Letlow, but after seeing his comments in support of DEI, he became interested in Fleming, whom he sees as “more in touch with conservative voters.”
Fleming has largely self-funded his campaign, which began last year. One of the founding members of the House Freedom Caucus, he has made inroads among Republican voters, particularly in rural communities, with his staunch opposition to carbon capture, which he says is a dangerous process that risks water pollution, hurts taxpayers and violates property rights.
Both Fleming and Letlow are aggressively attacking Cassidy for the impeachment vote, calling it a deep betrayal of MAGA and unfit for the Senate. Louisiana is holding closed primaries for the first time this year, a change that Fleming thinks will benefit conservatives like him.
“Number one, you have distrust of Senator Cassidy among Republican-based voters,” said John Couvillon, a pollster working on Fleming’s behalf. “Number two, since he has a relatively Republican voting record, he doesn’t get any great affection from the Democrats either. So he’s like the proverbial man without a political country.”
But some Republicans no longer feel Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump should be disqualifying in 2021, and they are reluctant to give up their leadership positions to a new senator. They also point out that despite Kennedy expressing concerns about rejecting some vaccines, Cassidy ultimately voted for their confirmation along with the rest of the Trump Cabinet.
“I don’t think his vote to convict President Trump should be the reason we should oust him,” said St. Martin Parish GOP Chairman Kelby Daigle. “I think it’s silly. We should move on. This is old news.”
Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
