Threats, fines and vetoes defined relations between Hungary’s outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the EU for years. Looks like that’s about to change.
On Sunday, Peter Magyar of the Tisza party won parliamentary elections in a landslide — and a mandate to get funding from the European bloc and get the country’s economy back on track.
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Orban, who ruled the country for more than 16 years, has been in a constant showdown with the EU, from staunchly supporting Russia and blocking sanctions against it to opposing funding for Ukraine. But that approach has turned into sanctions, no access to European money and diplomatic isolation.
Experts say that now European countries will have a partner for talks.
Orsolya Raczova, an analyst at Eurasia Group, said, “He (Magyar) does not want Hungary to become a pariah state; he sees Hungary’s movement inside the EU, not outside it; he wants Hungary to be part of the important decision-making process in Brussels.”
Voters cited the economy and cost of living as one of the main concerns that needed to be addressed, and “this is what Magyar used in his campaign, promising to kick-start the economy”, Razkova said, adding that in the process, “unlocking EU funds is a priority”.
Hungary has suffered three years of almost zero economic growth. It had the highest inflation in the EU in 2023, and has been the highest in the years since.
Ukraine and Russia
The EU allocated more than 16 billion euros ($18.7 billion) to Hungary following the COVID-19 pandemic. But the country has not yet met the criteria required to unlock that money.
To do this, the incoming prime minister must approve laws before an August deadline to address a number of EU concerns, including the independence of the judiciary, the rule of law and corruption.
The urgency of obtaining this money may be a factor in motivating Magyar to adopt a collaborative approach when it comes to Ukraine. The new leader, a conservative and former Orban ally who broke with the prime minister in 2024, opposes Kiev’s quick entry into the bloc, and has said he will continue to oppose military support for Ukraine.
But he will likely play a less confrontational role on the issue than his predecessor, and is expected to remove the veto against a 90 billion euro ($105 billion) loan to Ukraine that Orban imposed in February after accusing Kiev of delaying repairs on a pipeline bringing Russian fuel to Hungary and Slovakia.
“There would be a compromise, money for Ukraine in exchange for money for Hungary,” said Pavel Czerka, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
The Magyars have vowed to return Budapest to Russia’s western border. But he also stressed that Russian imports should remain an option. “It doesn’t mean that by ending your dependence on someone, you won’t continue buying from them,” he said in an interview.
Hungary is heavily dependent on Russian fuel and does not have many alternatives to it, Zerka said, especially now that there is a global shortage of fuel and gas because of the war in Iran. “He will continue to buy Russian fuel to secure the country’s energy security while distancing himself (from Moscow) as a political ally,” Zarka said, noting that such an approach would be in line with much of his voting base.
Nevertheless, Zerka said, referring to Orbán, that the political exit of the “major obstructionist of EU policies” would not mean a European consensus on Ukraine and Russia. Other EU members who objected to Ukraine’s annexation or continued sanctions against Russia were comfortable hiding behind Orbán’s vigorous opposition, denying him the opportunity to expose himself. “Now they will be forced to come out of the shadows,” Zarka said.
migrants
On migration, Tisza is expected to tone down Orban’s harsh rhetoric on refugee rights and may be willing to compromise on some issues to remove a 200 million euro ($234m) fine Hungary is paying for refusing to uphold the rights of asylum seekers, in breach of EU law.
But Tisza has indicated he will maintain a tough stance on border security, including maintaining the controversial border fence and opposing transfer quotas.
“We won’t see Orbán’s high-profile anti-immigration campaign and civilizational rhetoric, but we also won’t see him rushing to the border to get rid of the fence that Orbán built as one of his first acts,” said Gábor Sheering, a former member of the Hungarian National Assembly and assistant professor of comparative politics at Georgetown University Qatar.
“He had the support of all types of voters and politicians, so while he is more right-wing, he will have to consider different needs. He will soften on symbolic issues, culture and migration, but he is unlikely to move towards major liberal measures,” Shearing said.
Zarka said, “Many people voted against Orbán, but not in favor of Magyar, so this result should not be seen as a full display of confidence in him nor as a vote for a more moderate candidate.”
