Video footage shows oil tankers remaining cautious about sailing through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran announced on Friday that the sea route was open to commercial vessels.
Oil futures contracts fell on Friday as markets viewed Tehran’s announcement as a major breakthrough that would ease massive disruptions to global energy supplies. American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate Crude Whereas, on Friday it closed at $ 83.85 per barrel with a decline of 12%. brent crude futures Ended the day down 9%.
But statements by Iranian officials and President Donald Trump have created confusion over whether the strait is actually open.
In the beginning, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi Said The strait was “fully open” for the remainder of the armistice with the US and Israel. But Iranian media affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard released conditions for safe passage that are similar to rules Tehran has imposed for weeks.
‘A false morning’
Several tankers and cargo ships tried to exit the strait on Friday via the Iran-designated route around Larak Island, but they suddenly turned back, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kepler.
“They clearly have not been cleared to pass through there,” Smith said.
A source close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said commercial ships must follow a route specified by Tehran and coordinate with its military. Tasneem News. According to Tasnim report, ships or their cargo are not allowed to pass if they belong to enemy countries.
“It’s not clear whether there has been any dramatic change here,” said Tomer Raanan, maritime risk analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “Iran still wants ships to pass through its territorial waters.”
Meanwhile, Trump said the US naval blockade on Iran remains in place. Tehran threatened to close the strait if the blockade was not lifted.
This means the strait will remain functionally closed, said Matthew Wright, senior freight analyst at Kpler. “It’s a false dawn,” Wright said.
‘Not declared safe’
BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, on Friday advised ships to avoid the strait because of the danger of mines. “At this point the area has not been declared safe for transit,” said Jacob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief security officer.
Diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran may calm the oil futures market, but they cannot resolve physical disruptions in energy supplies. The day the strait remains closed, the disruption will get worse.
The last oil and product tankers to depart the Persian Gulf before the strait was closed have completed their week-long journey to destinations in Asia, Europe and North America.
One of the final shipments is a tanker of Iraqi crude that will arrive in Long Beach, California, next week, said Wright, a freight analyst at Kpler.
Smith said that with oil no longer coming through the Straits, the dominoes would begin to fall. Refineries in Asia, which are heavily dependent on Middle East oil, will have to cut their output, he said. That means countries that import products like jet fuel from Asian refineries will potentially face supply shortages, he said.
“The supply shortage in Asia is greater than elsewhere,” Wright said. “They’ve already significantly depleted their onshore reserves.”
It will take several months for traffic through the strait to return to normal, Wright said. Large shipping companies will likely sit on the sidelines and observe the first movers before they get involved, he said.
Correction: Tomar Raanan’s name was misspelled in an earlier version of this story.
