The US-Israel war over Iran has gripped the world for nearly seven weeks, with a fragile ceasefire offering a tense break in the past 10 days.
The US and Israeli attacks on the oil-rich nation of 90 million have killed more than 2,000 people, displaced millions and damaged critical infrastructure, including in areas near Iran’s nuclear sites. US President Donald Trump also threatened to destroy Iran’s “entire civilization” if it did not accede to Washington’s demands.
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In retaliation, Iran attacked Israeli targets and fired missiles at Gulf countries and the wider region.
The Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is threatened by Israel’s air strikes on Lebanon, which have killed more than 1,300 people, and its invasion of southern Lebanon.
Opinion polls in the US and Europe show that the war is extremely unpopular.
But widespread anger against the Iran war has failed to translate into mass street protests, such as during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Although the echoes of the war on Iran have been felt globally – with rising oil and gas prices, fertilizer shortages and stock market volatility – the impact has been felt faster than most previous conflicts.
Why? There are few clear answers – but analysts say several factors may help explain why this war has generated less opposition in its early days than other recent conflicts.
What do the statistics show?
Nearly 3,200 Iran war-related demonstrations took place around the world in the first month since the US-Israeli strikes began on February 28, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, a US-based non-profit that tracks violent incidents, armed conflicts and protests.
In contrast, there were 3,700 demonstrations in the first month following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and 6,100 demonstrations in the first month against Israel’s war on Gaza.
“The absence of major anti-war protests in the US is somewhat puzzling, especially given that the US entered the (Iran) war with only 21 percent public support,” University of Maryland professor Shibli Telhami told Al Jazeera, citing a pre-war survey conducted by his team.
According to various polls, by mid-April, about two-thirds of Americans surveyed continued to oppose the war.
“Unlike other wars, there was no rally around the flag effect,” Telhami said.
The war has also created an unprecedented energy crisis, with Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz soon after the war began, except to ships from countries that had negotiated separate deals. On Monday the US began a naval blockade of all Iran-linked vessels trying to pass through the strait, worsening traffic jams around the waterway through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes during peacetime.
For now, a low-impact war
Still, some analysts say American casualties so far have been minimal. Since the war began, 14 US soldiers have been killed in the conflict.
Trita Parsi, an Iran expert and founder of the Quincy Institute, said there has been no “mass mobilization of ground troops, ground invasions or high-risk measures”.
“Trump has entered into this war in a way that minimizes American casualties,” he told Al Jazeera.
American academic Jeremy Varon, whose research interests include social movements, said that people often come forward when their “conscience is shocked” or they realize some serious injustice.
In the war on Iran, Varon observed that the Trump White House was waging a “videogame war” through drones and missiles rather than ground troops.
“All we see from the Pentagon are ‘smart bombs’ destroying physical targets,” said The New School professor. “The human cost of war is almost invisible. This also applies to Iranian suffering.”
‘Tired, disappointed’
In contrast, Israel’s massacre in Gaza led to mass protests in the West as Israel reduced the Palestinian territory to rubble.
Scenes of mass casualties, displacement and apparent starvation mobilized protesters for weeks and months until a so-called “ceasefire” was declared last October, which Israel has repeatedly violated.
While the solidarity movement was undoubtedly successful in changing public opinion, particularly in the US, its inability to stop the genocide has left many activists “disillusioned, others exhausted”, Salar Mohandesi, a history professor at Bowdoin College, told Al Jazeera.
The US-based academic said Trump has been able to create a political storm on a range of issues – from immigration to the impact of tariffs – thereby splintering the opposition against him.
“People have limited time and bandwidth, so they’re likely making decisions about which issues to support. In their calculations, other outrages — like ICE — may be prioritized over the war,” Mohandesi said, referring to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the branch of the Department of Homeland Security that is leading Trump’s crackdown on immigrant communities in U.S. cities.
Varon of the New School said that there are undoubtedly protests against the US-Israeli war on Iran, but not a separate movement, adding that much of it has been incorporated into a larger protest movement against the US President, citing the anti-Trump No Kings protests, where many also condemned the war.
“Any anti-Trump dissent is, to a certain extent, anti-war,” Varon said.
He also pointed to a growing sense of powerlessness, as Trump appeared to be “unconstrained” by domestic or international law.
“People generally take to the streets when they feel their protest will make a difference,” he said. He said many Americans are “losing that trust, while quietly hoping that Trump’s policies will self-destruct.”
Image of Iran
Analysts say the second major reason lies in Iran’s global image – shaped by the West and its narratives.
Unlike Gaza, where protests are driven by a clear sense that Palestinians are an occupied people, Iran presents a more complicated case for many in the West.
Salar Mohandesi said, “With Palestine, you are dealing with a colonized people…With Iran, you are dealing with a sovereign state that has also oppressed its own population.”
He argued that that difference has made some opponents of the war wary of defending the Islamic Republic.
Furthermore, the Iranian diaspora plays an important role in shaping the country’s image abroad and is deeply divided.
A Zogby Analytics survey conducted in the first week of the war and commissioned by the National Iranian American Council found that Iranian Americans were almost evenly divided, with nearly 50 percent expressing support for the war. However, a second poll by Zogby Analytics found a decline in support for the war, with nearly two-thirds opposing the war as civilian casualties increased.
“Some of the most visible Iranian protests in the United States are those for war,” Mohandesi said.
The Indian diaspora in Britain is also divided.
Jenny Walsh, spokeswoman for Stop the War UK, said, “The Iranian community in Britain is deeply divided… There is no Iranian solidarity organization leading the anti-war movement.”
He is often accused of being “pro-regime” for opposing the US–Israeli war on Iran, a charge he strongly rejects.
Walsh said, “But I think that kind of message may result in the general public being reluctant to join demonstrations against the bombing.”
Higher education’s muted response
University campuses, historically the center of anti-war protests, have also seen a slow response.
In the case of Gaza, the expansion of support in Western colleges largely contributed to pushing the Palestinian issue to the forefront of the global political scene, but also led to a strong reaction from the authorities.
Analysts and activists argue that local police attacks on the sit-in, expulsion of students, firing of department staff, and threats of lawsuits have contributed to the unrest on campuses.
Under the Trump administration, hundreds of student visas were revoked, student protesters were kidnapped by ICE, and universities threatened with funding cuts if demonstrations were not stopped.
“It is not possible to organize in the same way as it was a few years ago,” said Mohandesi, a US-based academic who added that administrators have passed “draconian” rules limiting political activities on campus.
“They have de-chartered student groups, banned students from booking rooms, canceled events at the last minute, and restricted the right to free speech,” he said. In addition to “fear of retribution”, individuals and groups who would be in a position to lead the effort to oppose the war are still trying to “gain a foothold in this fundamentally changed terrain”.
Anti-war campaigners say they have seen a similar pattern in Britain.
“In most UK universities, authorities have effectively silenced students by intimidating them with expulsions and the like,” STW’s Walsh said.
In August a report by activist group Social Innovators for Justice (SI4J) accused the country’s leading universities, including Oxford and Cambridge, of “widespread systemic repression” against Gaza-related sit-ins and protests.
Can the anti-war opposition change?
For now, a fragile ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the US has eased tensions, reducing traffic on the roads.
But analysts say that without a lasting political solution, any renewed escalation could quickly test whether public opposition remains low or spills over into a sustained protest movement, especially if the costs are more directly felt.
“If (the US) goes in with ground troops and hundreds of Americans are killed, things could change very quickly,” said Parsi of the Quincy Institute. The US has deployed thousands of marines near Iran, and reports suggest it plans to move more troops to the region – suggesting it is keeping the option of a ground attack open even amid peace talks.
Varon of the New School said that “images of death and grief” can increase the “moral anxiety” of the American people.
However, economic pressures may be the most immediate catalyst for the growing anti-war movement, particularly in the US.
“The pain… is not too bad right now,” said Parsi, the Iran expert. “If rising fuel costs and inflation began to hit households more sharply, opposition to the war would no longer be abstract.”
