Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief this weekend, cautiously optimistic that President Donald Trump has found an off-ramp to end the war in Iran.
Stock markets hit new all-time high as oil fell below $90 a barrel, and gas fell 8 cents per gallon this weekFor the first time since the war began in late February, some people felt a light breeze at their backs.
Matt Gorman, GOP communications strategist at Targeted Victory, said, “Everyone knows the historical trends. But at least by lowering gas prices, some of the post-State of the Union momentum can be restored by actively leaving the war behind.” “Republicans are dying for the ability to get back on crime.”
Although it may seem quick to pop the champagne –For example, Iran denied It agreed to move its enriched uranium to the US, as Trump claimed threatened to close the straitIf the US blockade continues – the consolation is in proportion to how miserable things looked a few days ago. Republicans say the trick now is to keep distractions to a minimum — no small task when the party leader is one social media post away from a new controversy. Success also depends on the administration’s theory of a rapid economic recovery proving accurate — and voters are relieved.
“Short-term, there is certainly relief, but it is the mini political hand grenades that remain challenging,” said one GOP donor, speaking on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “Instead of being able to focus solely on tax refunds this week, members got questions about the Pope and the ballroom.”
The jittery nerves underscore how damaging the past few weeks have been for GOP supporters and strategists. While war with Iran was never popular, it fractured the MAGA base and raised questions about the president’s position on core movement doctrine. Polls show House likely to lose And the Senate may be in play. And rising gas prices could negate one of the president’s signature accomplishments — a massive tax cut that was supposed to line voters’ wallets and stimulate the economy. On the way, quarrel with the Pope, setback in war and Victor Orban’s defeat in Hungary The administration appeared to be at the mercy of events rather than control them.
“The Iran issue continues to be a contributing factor to voters’ broader concerns about the economy and global stability,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist and partner at Washington-based consulting firm Penta. “It is good that tensions are easing. However, the main consideration in the context of the medium term to 2026 is how sustainable the situation today is.”
The durability of the ceasefire truce between Iran and Lebanon remains to be seen, but Tehran’s decision to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with European leaders pledge Helping secure it gives hope to Republicans who believe their fate is tied to the price at the pump.
“Congressional Republicans breathed a huge sigh of relief today,” said former Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Republican from Florida. “It looks like they’ll be able to put the Iran conflict in the rear view mirror; there’s still enough time for voters to focus on tax relief and other issues. It’ll be a tough climb, but now they’ll have a chance.”
White House spokesman Taylor Rogers said Friday’s good news proved the president’s contention that the economic disruption from the war would be brief.
“Time and again, the ‘panicans’ have been proven wrong by President Trump, who consistently keeps his promises to the American people. The President remains focused on keeping the American people safe, reducing costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,” Rogers said. “The President was always clear that these were short-term, temporary disruptions that would be resolved through the unprecedented successes of Operation Epic Fury and the ongoing peace negotiations that followed.”
Trump was also in a celebratory mood. On Friday in Arizona, the second and last stop on a southwest tour through battleground states to promote his tax cuts, Trump told reporters it was a “big day.”
“We’ll see how it all goes but it should be good, there were some very good discussions,” Trump said. “Talks are ongoing, it will last through the weekend and a lot of good things are happening.”
Speaking at the Turning Point USA event, Trump appeared to be in upbeat mood, citing a lower trade deficit, the end of DEI, and tax cuts among other items as highlights of a second term, and he explicitly linked those successes to the need to win the midterms.
“You should go out and vote Republican, we need it,” Trump said before reveling in the day’s good news. “Did you notice that oil fell today? Did you notice that prices fell today?”
Still, not everyone shared Trump’s enthusiasm, with some Republicans concerned that the Trump-shaped shoe was about to drop.
“I would say I’m completely optimistic, not completely convinced that this will hold,” said a GOP operative working in a swing state.
And for all the enthusiasm, some Republicans, especially those less enthused by Trump’s leadership, still see the flood of good news as doing little to stop the blue wave headed their way.
Former Colorado Republican Representative Ken Buck said, “An end to the war with Iran would result in Iran giving up its highly enriched uranium and shutting down its military nuclear program, which would increase the chances of Republicans losing the House by only 15-20 votes.”
