Republicans in the battleground state are growing concerned: Their Senate majority may not be as secure as they once thought.
Democrats still face steep odds to flip the House, but interviews with nearly two dozen GOP operatives, party chairmen and strategists in battleground states across the country found consistent concern that the longer the Iran war drags on and the economy stumbles, the more complicated their path to retaining the majority in November could become.
“Momentum has shifted to the Democrats,” said Jason Roe, a Michigan-based GOP strategist.
“Republicans have the best candidate they’ve had in a long time, but they face serious headwinds,” said New Hampshire GOP strategist Mike Dennehy.
“I wouldn’t say I feel warm and fuzzy about things right now,” said the Georgia Republican operative, who, like others in this story, granted anonymity to speak about the party’s strategy.
It was not initially expected that the Senate would be a concern for Republicans.
Even with the usual midterm dynamics often troubling the party in power, this year’s map strongly favored Republicans. Democrats need to hold all of their seats — including defending senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia and an open seat in Michigan, with Trump winning in 2024 — while flipping four Republican-held seats.
But Republicans in key Senate battlegrounds said Democrats have fielded stronger candidates, and a tough national environment — driven by voters’ concern over rising costs and the ongoing Iran war — has made their path more difficult than ever.
Roe, an occasional critic of Trump, warned of higher gas prices as a result of the ongoing conflict in Iran, angering Americans. Dennehy says things could change if “Trump makes dramatic changes to improve his standing with voters.” The Georgia operative called a prolonged war “the exact opposite of what Senate Republicans want right now.”
“They still have an uphill battle,” Roe said of Democrats’ majority expectations, “but when you look at what the map looks like today and what we thought it would look like a few months ago, it’s very different.”
Iran war and power
Republicans are not in a completely panic mood yet. Most do not expect the war to last much longer and say there is plenty of time before November for fiscal pressures to ease and voters to feel economic relief.
A second Georgia-based GOP operative said, “If the combat operations end over the summer, there’s plenty of time for gasoline prices to turn around, which I think is really the primary concern here. I think it will return to normal.”
Uncomfortable Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Friday after Iran announced it was reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the remainder of the armistice between Israel and Lebanon, sending oil prices plunging. But on Saturday Iran’s army said this closed the strait Again, it will remain that way until the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, underscoring the delicate state of negotiations.
Talks to end the war remain slow, and economic experts have warned that high gas prices could persist for at least several months as the global economy grapples with the conflict. Republicans are also eager for Trump to refocus on the administration’s victories rather than the current conflict or other potential distractions.
An Iowa-based strategist has given the White House’s midterm strategy so far a “C” rating, reflecting frustration among some Republicans with the White House.
“They say the right things strategically, and then they don’t follow through where you’d like them to,” the strategist said.
The White House said Trump’s focus is on Americans’ economic concerns and resolving the ongoing conflict in Iran. “While the U.S. military and the President’s diplomatic team are making progress toward securing an agreement with Iran and resolving temporary disruptions in energy markets, the rest of the Administration has never lost its focus on implementing the President’s affordability and growth agenda on the domestic front,” spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.
“The short-term disruptions from Operation Epic Fury are completely behind us,” he said, adding, “Americans can count on greater economic progress thanks to this administration.”
Candidate recruitment and disorganized primaries have changed the map
Even before the war started, Republicans were seeing some cracks in their best-case scenario map.
Party activists were originally excited about capturing North Carolina and Ohio and flipping Georgia. Then, Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced his retirement, leaving an open seat in a key battleground state. Republicans nominated former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, and Democrats countered with former Governor Roy Cooper, who has wide name recognition and strong fundraising skills.
“It’s a very close state and it’s a close race,” said a GOP operative in the state. “But the national environment looks just as tough for Republicans right now, and you already have an established governor like Roy Cooper, so I think they’ve got an advantage.”
Democrats scored another recruiting victory in the form of former Ohio senator Sherrod Brown, another prolific fundraiser. Early public polling shows the former three-term senator running a tight race with GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the vacancy left by J.D. Vance’s ascension to the vice presidency and is suffering from less name recognition than usual for an incumbent.
“I think we’re back to 2018 where the odds were against Republicans,” said former Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, who unsuccessfully challenged Brown that year. “I mean, I ran against Sherrod Brown in 2018 and the national voter D+ was around 6 to 8. I think we’re getting to the same place in Ohio.”
In Georgia, an upset in a three-way GOP primary has Republicans uneasy about their chances against Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who has amassed a huge war chest.
“Republicans really need to unify behind a candidate to defeat Jon Ossoff,” said Morgan Bonewell, an Iowa-based GOP strategist. “I don’t think they can continue to beat each other, or afford to continue.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee said that Democrats in North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia “are wolves in sheep’s clothing who will obediently carry water to the Democrats’ increasingly radical agenda.” The NRSC also attacked the Democratic candidates’ records on crime, immigration, and the economy.
As some states become more competitive, Republicans are becoming more focused on flipping Michigan. He argues that former GOP Representative Mike Rogers, who lost to Senator Elissa Slotkin in 2024, is running a stronger campaign this time and will benefit from the three-way car crash of the primary on the Democratic side.
But Republicans who have seen Democrats outperform in a series of special elections have also begun to sweat about voting — even in states where they are more confident of winning. Several state and local GOP party chairs told POLITICO that the party needs to remain focused on keeping Trump voters engaged without the president on the ballot.
“What we have to focus on in Michigan — and I’m sure all the chairmen are doing this across the country — is really creating a strategy to turn out the Republican vote,” said Jim Runstad, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party. “That will be the deciding factor.”
Samuel Benson contributed to this report.
