Amid poor performance across the country and President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings, New York Democrats are wondering: Why not try to flip a seat that Trump won by 20 points?
Now Democrats in the Empire State are pouring their political capital into the race in a deeply red area because of unpopular moves by the Trump administration — the latest indicator of how fired up they feel about the midterms, which will determine control of the House.
Governor Kathy Hochul recently explained how “optimistic“She’s about to flip outgoing Rep. Elise Stefanik’s seat in the North Country, where dairy farmer Blake Gendebien has emerged as the top contender for the Democratic nod. Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin, who campaigned with Gendebien, transferred $9,000 to her through their joint fundraising committee last month. And the two Republicans are competing for the GOP nomination to replace Stefanik. — sticker company executive Anthony Constantino and state Assemblyman Robert Smullen — are locked in what is promising to be a bloody primary.
The legal threats and personal comments affecting the GOP primary aren’t the only reasons this seat is of interest to Democrats. Hochul pointed to conversations he had with conservative farmers in the district who expressed frustrations about tariffs and immigration raids.
“I heard a lot of anger,” he said. “I was looking at it as a place where people wouldn’t expect us to have a chance to win, where I believe we do, because people are rejecting policies that are raising costs and making their lives miserable.”
It’s a seat that has every reach — a conundrum that also looms over Democratic dreams in other GOP-held districts across the state.
For one, it’s an expensive gamble — especially when Democrats have a trio of vulnerable incumbents to protect and an expensive Republican-held district in the New York City suburbs they’re trying to win. Significant national investment is also unlikely to come to a seat that has not been held by a Democrat for more than a decade; Stefanik outperformed Trump in 2024, winning by a margin of 24 points.
But recent Democratic performances, including a 25-point swing in a ruby red corner of Georgia and a state legislative victory in Trump’s hometown Florida district, have some arguing it deserves a closer look.
Take Ruskin. He said he is looking to support candidates who are “outside the strict ‘red to blue’ column” – and placed Gendebien in that category.
Raskin said, “I’m someone who doesn’t use opinion polls; I don’t believe what the pundits say.” “I’m not criticizing the DCCC about this, because they obviously want to focus on the districts where the numbers are. But when you’re in that mental state, it’s easy to be governed by the objective data and numbers that you see. Politics isn’t just a science – it’s also an art, and we can’t ignore the subjectivity of these candidates, because there are some remarkable candidates out there.”
Gendebien recorded a strong fundraising first quarter of the year, raising nearly $600,000 and entered April with $2.5 million in the bank – one of the highest cash-on-hand amounts for a nonincumbent statewide. That money will be significant, especially if he’s facing off against Constantino, who has already spent millions of his own money in the primary. Smullen has the support of the state GOP, but reported raising $660,000 last quarter — thanks to a $500,000 personal loan — with only $960,000 on hand. (Another Democrat, Stuart Amorial, is also in the race, but he is largely self-funding his campaign and has less than $20,000.)
Republicans were quick to pour cold water on Democrats’ hopes.
“Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen and Josh Riley will not be happy to hear that resources will be diverted from their race for whatever the Democrats envision,” Lydia Hall, a spokeswoman for the House leadership-backed Congressional Leadership Fund, said in a statement.
Suozzi, whom national Republicans are targeting on Long Island, gave $4,000 to Gendebien through his leadership PAC last month, on top of a $1,000 contribution last year.
However, Stefanik’s seat isn’t the only district where Democrats are looking more closely at the deep blue New York map.
Some see opportunities in other hard-to-reach seats like Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’s district, which includes Staten Island and part of Brooklyn — and which is a Democrat. unsuccessful attempt to redraw. And they’re keeping an eye on Representative Nick LaLotta, who is holding a Long Island district that has consistently proven an elusive target for Democrats. But, like Stefanik’s seat, non-partisan election analysts currently peg Lalota and Malliotakis as safe bets for Republicans.
While LaLotta is not currently on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list — as he was this time during the last election cycle — there are signs that Republicans are gearing up for a competitive race: The American Action Network, a nonprofit, formed a coalition with House GOP leadership recently. promoted lalota He was praised for “stopping the Democrats’ tax hikes” in an ad campaign. He said the incumbent also ran taxpayer-funded ads about tax cuts.helped enact“
“With really great candidates, in a really good Democratic year, with Republican fundraising suppressed by people who are not feeling good about where Republicans are, it’s possible that these races all become where they emerge,” said Andrew Grossman of Battleground New York, a coalition of labor unions and progressive groups that is targeting LaLotta’s seat. “Historically, the investments people make tend to fall into this kind of race, because opportunities appear in odd places.”
However, those Democratic candidates have a long way to go to prove their viability. Army veteran Chris Gallant, a political newcomer who wants to challenge LaLotta, raised nearly $120,000 in the first quarter of the year with $72,000 — while the incumbent had $3 million in the bank. Union electrician Alison Giogas, a Democrat who entered the race against Malliotakis in March, has raised $85,000 and has $64,000. Malliotakis has earned $580,000 with $2.6 million in his coffers. Other Democrats running for both seats raised even smaller amounts.
But Giogas has also attracted interest from outside the district, getting a boost from both New York Representative Pat Ryan, a former battleground Democrat against whom Republicans are not making a concerted effort this year, and Illinois Representative Nikki Budzinski. Ryan and Budzinski donated $1,000 and $4,000, respectively, from their affiliated committees.
For their part, Republicans are downplaying the importance of special elections across the country and arguing that voters will attribute the economic pain in the state to local Democrats rather than Trump. He also hopes Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who is running against Hochul for governor, will support his down-ballot incumbents, especially in the key battleground state of Long Island.
“I have the idea of expanding the map, but that’s not going to happen,” said GOP strategist Dave Catalfamo, a former adviser to the former governor. George Pataki. “There is a huge amount of unhappiness with what is happening abroad and how it is impacting gas prices. …By the time the election season comes, it will sort itself out.”
Maureen O’Toole, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, put it more bluntly: “The Democrats don’t have a chance.”
For now, national Democratic groups are working from a much smaller electoral map of New York after losing four seats two years ago. They are targeting only Republican Representative Mike Lawler, who was one of only a few Republicans in the country to win the seat of then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. With more than $4 million at their disposal, Democrats will have to spend heavily to flip the seat, which could be make-or-break for regaining the majority.
But national groups are not completely denying the expansion of the map.
“With plenty of time for the race to develop, House Republicans should not assume their seats are anywhere near safe — even in deep red districts across the Empire State,” House Majority PAC spokeswoman Katrina Flicker said in a statement. DCCC spokeswoman Rhea Washi said that “Democrats are on the offensive” and “Republicans across the Empire State know they are in deep trouble in November.”
Jay Jacobs, chairman of the New York Democratic Party, said, “You all may scoff, but the political climate at that time was a very powerful thing.” “It could be a howling wind or a perfect storm, and I think Republicans are heading for a storm this year.”
Jason Beeferman contributed to this report.
