The Iran war is damaging America’s influence around the world and President Donald Trump’s second term is increasing tensions with countries already affected by it — an erosion of power that may be difficult to reverse as American adversaries like China take advantage.
From Bangladesh to Slovenia, fuel rationing has disrupted transportation, leaving leaders frustrated at having to deal with the consequences of a war they didn’t want. In Muslim-majority countries, anti-American rhetoric is spreading, often with the tacit permission of governments. Even America’s allies in NATO have limited their help to the US, with some pointing out that the Trump administration did not consult them before starting a fight with Iran.
The war appears to be intensifying, which some see as the US breaking with much of the rest of the planet since Trump returned to office and began recklessly increasing US economic and military power, including tariffs.
“Many people are fed up with how chaotic this war has been and are scared of the potential economic impact, but I haven’t seen any major protests in response,” said a Washington-based Asian diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because the topic is sensitive. “If someone more sensible becomes the next president, America’s image may improve, but for policymakers it raises some difficult long-term questions about alliances, how far we can go to remain engaged with America and what we should do if we can no longer trust America.”
In the latest sign of foreign powers distancing themselves, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described his country’s economic ties with the US as “weaknesses” that need to be improved. A video message was released on Sunday.
“We have to take care of ourselves because we can’t rely on a foreign partner,” said Carney, who has been critical of Trump because of his threats to Greenland. “We can’t control the disruption coming from our neighbors. We can’t stake our future on the expectation that it will suddenly stop.”
Some former US officials say Trump’s persistent indecisiveness over what he wants to achieve in Iran has not inspired confidence.
“Allies don’t know who to trust, adversaries don’t know what to fear, and his own Cabinet doesn’t know what his strategy or intentions really are,” said Thomas Wright, a former National Security Council official in the Biden administration who focuses on long-term strategy. “The long-term forecast is not final. But the question is what China, Russia, North Korea and Iran will do over the next two years and nine months if this trend continues.”
Asked for comment, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump’s America First approach has translated into better trade deals, growing partnerships to combat drug trafficking and increased defense spending by allies.
“World leaders have talked about the threat posed by Iran for 47 years, but no one has had the courage to address it,” Kelly said. “Once all of our objectives are accomplished, including eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat once and for all, the entire world will be safer, more stable, and better off.”
Sparks are flying in energy prices
Since the US and Israel launched a war with Iran on February 28, the global energy sector has been disrupted due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities.
The US, already the world’s top oil and gas producer, has seen its impact on energy markets near-term, but these gains may be short-lived.
Asian countries hardest hit by volatile energy prices – some of which have mandated working from home or halted exports to save fuel – have vowed to speed up renewable energy installations and restart nuclear power plants. Europe is keen to learn lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and avoid becoming dependent on a single energy supplier. instead of this Plan to expand energy efficiency and renewable energy programs Deploy more electric vehicles.
Nations that want to limit shocks like fossil fuel depletion and sudden price spikes – all of which have led to dire inflationary scenarios of slow growth and rising costs – are beginning to see alternatives like solar power, batteries and electric vehicles as essential. Many may turn to China, which controls the overwhelming majority of the solar energy supply chain. Beijing is producing electric vehicles at low prices and controls large shares of minerals for clean energy and batteries.
“The goal here is not just to avoid shocks. It is to use this period of uncertainty to build the foundation for more durable stability,” Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda said at a Council on Foreign Relations event in Washington last week.
Energy Department spokesman Ben Dieterich referred Politico to comments made by Energy Secretary Chris Wright in a Sunday appearance on CNN. Wright criticized the effectiveness of subsidies to promote renewable energy and said the US would maintain its influence through oil and gas.
“We are a net exporter of oil in the world and we are by far and away the largest exporter of natural gas in the world,” he said.
less friends on the battlefield
As the war continues, the strain on America’s military alliances has become impossible to ignore.
In previous wars in the region, the US President has managed to unite even reluctant allies on the issue. This included the Trump administration asking for help last year in defending Israeli cities and civilian infrastructure in the region from Iranian attacks.
According to two diplomats from European countries, this time the Trump administration did not even inform its closest aides in advance, and has not asked them clearly since then.
It has had an impact. In response to the closure of the strait, Britain and France have called for a series of meetings with dozens of allied countries to draw up a plan to keep the strait open after the war ends, but not the US.
european initiative Its purpose will be to conduct defensive operations to protect commercial shipping in the strait, but the timing and forces involved are still a work in progress.
This comes as the EU is also looking for ways to strengthen the bloc’s collective defense mechanism, Article 42.7Should it be tested a move that could be seen as a response to the Trump administration’s threats to take Greenland by force.
Still, U.S. defense ties around the world run deep and are difficult to untangle. Trump has repeatedly threatened to dismantle some of them (including leaving NATO), but he has taken no serious steps in that direction. Many countries, disappointed with Trump, still want American military power on their side.
On Monday, the US and the Philippines Major military exercises begin It is expected that this will also include Japan and Canada and will serve as a warning to China.
In the Middle East, US attacks on Iran have generated mixed reactions.
Israel has been a strong partner in the fight against Iran, and appears intent on weakening the Islamic Republic as much as possible if it cannot overthrow the regime.
While the Persian Gulf countries tried to stop the US from its first attacks on Iran, many have since become angered by Iranian retaliatory attacks on their soil. The United Arab Emirates, on the one hand, is increasingly favoring the US-led war effort, even reportedly raised the possibility It may need a financial lifeline from Washington.
diplomatic debacle
The war in Iran has also damaged America’s reputation and influence in countries where American efforts to strengthen ties face stiff competition.
In an excerpt from a State Department cable Thursday, U.S. diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe, Tajikistan warned that “the conflict in Iran has led to the rise of a persistent anti-American narrative in Tajikistan’s highly restricted media environment as foreign actors deepen their influence and local outlets chase clicks and outside funding.”
“Our competitors are devoting resources to ensuring narrative dominance in the country at the crossroads of China, Afghanistan, Russia, and Iran,” he said in a recent excerpt obtained by Politico.
Similar cables sent from US diplomats in Bahrain, Indonesia and Azerbaijan – and first reported by Politico – also described the spread of anti-US messaging and warned that, in some cases, America’s security and diplomatic relations were at risk.
Asked for comment, State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott shared a stock statement he had previously used: “President Trump’s actions are making the United States, future generations, and the entire world safer by preventing the Iranian regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. That’s the reality, and the entire Administration is engaged in that effort.”
Trump’s moves in Iran have heightened the isolation some U.S. allies felt when he launched the “Peace Board,” which was conceived as a body to help implement a deal between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but critics became suspicious that it was designed to replace the United Nations. Until the board’s launch in February, Hungary and Bulgaria were the only two EU members to formally join the board. Other EU countries remained fully prepared by sending only observers, and Belgium revealed its hesitation on Monday.
Belgian Foreign Ministry spokesman David Jordan told POLITICO that his country does not intend to donate money through the peace board.
Nevertheless, Trump supporters argue that any current pain resulting from the US President’s actions in Iran will be worth it in the long run.
Alexander Gray, who served as a top National Security Council official in Trump’s first term, said the decision now to move against Iran and its destabilizing activities “will pay dividends for future presidents.”
Daniela Cheslow and Phelim Keane contributed to this report.
