At first glance, the continued absence of Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei seems to be a sign of deep instability. In most political systems – especially a centralized system like Iran – the disappearance of the top authority would lead to chaos. But in Iran’s current moment of crisis, this very absence is doing the opposite – helping to preserve the regime.The supreme leader has not appeared in public since he was linked to the succession following the reported death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His name continues to appear in official messages, but without any apparent participation in decision making or presence of confirmation.Even statements made in his name have been broadcast through state media and even AI-generated videos, reinforcing the perception of a leader who is symbolically, but not physically, present in the public administration, CNN reports.
IRGC expanded control
In the absence of visible leadership, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly stepped into a more direct ruling role. Fox News and Iran International reported that IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi blocked President Massoud Pezeshkian’s attempt to appoint a new intelligence minister, rejecting all proposed candidates, including Hossein Dehghan. The report said Vahidi insisted that all sensitive appointments be handled directly by the IRGC, in what he described as wartime conditions. This has effectively sidelined civilian decision-making in key security departments, although, under Iran’s system, such appointments usually require approval from the Supreme Leader.Furthermore, Pezeshkian’s administration has been described as a “political impasse”. The President’s authority to pursue major decisions appears to be limited, particularly in areas related to intelligence and national security, the Financial Express reports. Iran International also reported that Pezeshkian has repeatedly sought a meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei, but those requests have gone unanswered, deepening uncertainty over where ultimate authority currently lies.
Is Khamenei being used as a political cover?
Analysts suggest the system is using Mojtaba Khamenei’s name as a political cover.CNN quoted Ali Waze as saying, “Mojtaba is not in a position where he can actually make important decisions or micromanage negotiations,” but “the system is using him to get final approval for major broader decisions, not for negotiation strategy.”“The system deliberately highlights Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a safeguard against internal criticism… unlike his father who regularly appeared and commented on the state of negotiations,” he said, adding, “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing his views is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”At the same time, Iran’s political message has continued to emphasize unity. State-affiliated outlets have rejected claims of internal disunity, while senior figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have remained visible at diplomatic engagements, including reported talks in Islamabad.US Vice President JD Vance said the Iranian delegation would have to return to Tehran to seek approval from the supreme leader or “someone else” after talks failed to reach an agreement last week.So far, no agreement has really been possible in Iran without the support of the Supreme Leader. But now, the system is moving to a stage where it is no longer strictly necessary to have public approval of the leader.
