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The S&P 500 rang the opening bell ahead of the day’s two main events – the Kevin Wersh hearing and the expiration of a two-week ceasefire that forced Iran to back off all aggressive statements. This did not happen, and while Trump’s blockade remained in place the Iranians decided not to negotiate. What their political representation gave up on Friday (pleasant market-oriented talk as if a breakthrough had been achieved, when it was not), along with showing a readiness to return to war, gave way to a more generally enforced Hormuz blockade.
I thought at least some of the predictable elements of the Wersch hearing (independence, etc.) would be factored in before they occurred, but it shaped up to additionally introduce uncertainty, causing markets to risk off. To cap the second round of talks failing (intraday decline), we were treated to Trump’s unilateral ceasefire extension, which helped send risk-off markets reeling within minutes… Neither war, nor peace, showdown continues as the dollar retained half of its risk-free gains on the day.
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