With oil supplies increasingly disrupted in the Middle East due to the Iran war, public transit agencies looking to add passengers may hope that higher gas prices will encourage people to ride the rails more than ever.
Historically, higher gas prices lead to increased use of public transportation. But the pandemic hit mass transit hard, especially in California, and the recovery has been slow as many people continue to work from home.
Gas prices rose after the Ukraine war began in 2022, but there was not a large increase in ridership on local public transportation, and the question is whether the reaction to higher fuel prices would be different from the Iran war.
The number of residents traveling on local rail lines in California’s two major metropolitan cities increased significantly last month. Although officials believe gas prices may be a factor behind this increase, experts say it is not yet clear whether this is the beginning of a larger trend.
California gas prices have risen 30% since the beginning of the year, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. In the Los Angeles-Long Beach area, the average price of regular gas rose from $4.67 in February to $5.93 in March; The average in San Francisco also increased – rising to $5.99 from $4.83 in February American Automobile Assoc. Informed.
At the same time, ridership in each region increased by approximately 1 million passengers.
A Times analysis found that Los Angeles subway ridership reached 6.3 million in March, up from 5.8 million in March of 2025 and 5.7 million during the same month a year earlier.
Nearly 5.4 million riders traveled on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit rail system in March, up from 4.5 million in the same month in 2025 and 4.1 million in 2024.
The areas’ bus systems have seen little growth or remained stable in ridership: SF’s Muni is projected to increase from a projected 13 million riders to about 15 million from March 2024 to March 2026. Los Angeles’ subway has averaged about 20 million riders during the same time period.
In the first two months of the year, growth in Metro’s rail ridership was primarily driven by weekend ridership rather than daily ridership.
“These riders typically choose the Metro for leisure trips to avoid traffic congestion and the high cost and inconvenience of parking,” said Metro spokeswoman Maya Pogoda.
But March was completely different.
“We have seen an 8.6% increase in weekday ridership compared to March 2024, which shows that more people may return to rail for regular, work-related journeys – not just occasional journeys,” he said.
As it happens, March was exceptionally busy in terms of local and nationwide events in both LA and the Bay Area. There was the opening day of Major League Baseball teams in both areas, as well as dozens of No Kings protests – and each had hyper-local events that were near multiple train stations.
BART riders – including locals and out-of-towners – boarded the rails to participate in the five-day event Game Developers Conference: The Festival of Gaming, which began March 1, as well as the four-day cybersecurity RSAC 2026 conference, which began March 23, said Alicia Trost, BART’s chief communications officer.
In Southern California, the Dodgers and Angels had a three-game spring training series at the end of the month, and each team’s stadium is just a short walk from a train station. On March 15, Hollywood hosts the Oscars – just a stone’s throw from the Bee Line.
In general, it’s hard to get people out of their cars, even in times of high gas prices, said Michael Manville, a professor of urban planning at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs.
“People are kind of locked in their cars,” Manville said. “Even when they start to feel the pinch, they don’t necessarily change their travel behavior, they cut back on other things.”
Ethan N., director of the climate program at UC Berkeley’s Center for Law, Energy and the Environment. Changing transportation habits will start with low-income individuals and families, Elkind said.
The last time a war caused gas prices to rise, followed by an increase in the number of people taking public transportation, was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 — yet it’s difficult to prove a direct connection, Elkind said.
He said, one thing is that the increase in fuel prices did not last for very long.
“It doesn’t necessarily lead to any long-term change,” Elkind said.
To create long-term change, LA’s Metro is expanding and recently announced it is testing a people mover at Los Angeles International Airport. The Mover is connected to a new LAX/Metro Transit Center and connected to the system’s C and K lines. There are also four new stops on the A Line in the San Gabriel Valley.
Transit authorities have also started “activations” – shopping or entertainment aimed at encouraging people to spend some time at stations rather than simply passing through. In March, eight such events took place, including an open market at the Glendora station, a night market in Pomona, and a violinist performing for two hours at the 7th and Metro station.
Elkind and Manville said that if gas prices remain high for a long time, people will begin to change their transportation routines.
They may start with eliminating discretionary trips, but then “will start switching to transit because it’s become a necessity now that they can no longer drive, or they’re just minding the extra costs,” Elkind said. “It tips the scale in favor of taking transit, even though it may mean it takes a little longer to get where they need to go.”
With this in mind, a cheaper alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles already exists – electric vehicles. Although new EV sales have been declining with Trump coming to power in the White House and eliminating incentives for EV purchases, used vehicles are now generally more affordable than new or used gasoline-fueled vehicles.
The best way to get more people to use their local transit system is to create stations that are conveniently located within walking or biking distance of homes and businesses, Elkind said.
“That’s where we’ve really failed, primarily in California,” Elkind said, “because our destinations are not oriented around transit.” There are exceptions such as the rail systems in Koreatown, Downtown Los Angeles, West Hollywood, Santa Monica, Downtown San Francisco, Oakland, and Berkeley.
“But these are small pockets,” he said, “and they are not enough.”
