Israel finds itself embroiled in two semi-frozen conflicts in Lebanon and Iran. But the outcome of these battles will likely be determined not by Israel’s own political leaders, but by the United States and President Donald Trump, Israeli analysts have told Al Jazeera.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are visiting Pakistan for a second round of talks with Iran that do not include Israel. At the same time, Trump on Thursday announced to extend the ceasefire in Lebanon for three weeks. Of course, Israel has repeatedly violated that ceasefire – but analysts say Trump has more influence on events in Israel than his allies.
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This is despite Israel’s leaders – and especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – repeatedly describing Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah as an existential threat. Netanyahu had been calling for that kind of war for years, which he finally launched with the United States against Iran in late February.
But the outcome of that war now appears to be beyond his control. And, according to observers, this is of increasing concern to the Israeli public, to whom Netanyahu promised to “end the threat from the ayatollah regime in Iran” and the final “disarmament” of Hezbollah.
Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, said, “Netanyahu’s effort to control Washington over both Iran and Lebanon was both arrogant and opportunistic, but it should not be surprising that Netanyahu would make such an effort.”
Levy, now a prominent critic of Israel, said, “Partly it is Netanyahu starting to believe his own propaganda not only in terms of what Israel can achieve vis-à-vis Washington, but also in terms of what Israel and the US can achieve jointly in terms of reshaping the region, which has not happened.” “But Netanyahu also sees an opportunity with this administration, which has become so hollow in terms of the interagency process, that he can push the United States to do things that Israel … couldn’t do before.”
Israelis still want war
With Hezbollah and Iran both damaged but still standing, Trump’s declaration of dual ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon has put Netanyahu, the chief cheerleader of both conflicts, in domestic political danger.
Just days before Trump’s Lebanon ceasefire announcement, an Israel Democracy Institute poll showed overwhelming support among Jewish Israeli respondents for continuing the conflict, even if it led to friction with the US.
The ceasefire with Iran has also proven unpopular within Israel, with two-thirds of Israelis opposing a pause in the operation in a survey conducted by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“I think that, on the one hand, Israelis, especially Israeli Jews, put both of them (Iran and Lebanon) into the broader basket of ‘all enemies are against us,'” Dahlia Sheindlin, an American Israeli political consultant, pollster and journalist, told Al Jazeera. “We live in a region where there is a group of enemies that are trying to destroy Israel in every possible way. So it becomes part of the Israelis’ broader self-image.”
There is low public confidence that the Israeli government is capable of making decisions, he said, as well as uncertainty over the future dictated by an erratic US president.
“The United States is a much stronger partner,” Scheindlin said. “So there is an understanding that Washington ultimately shapes the course of events. Israel has influence and a voice, but not the final decision. That sentiment is becoming a common theme at this point.”
Netanyahu’s critics
After Trump initially announced the ceasefire in Lebanon, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former chief of staff and chairman of the centrist Yashar Party, said it was a continuation of the ceasefire “imposed” on Israel over the past two and a half years.
While critics would note that the US has done little to rein in Israel and has often actively supported its attacks, Eisenkot was more focused on Netanyahu’s “inability to convert military achievements into diplomatic gains”.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid was equally critical, writing on social media: “Not for the first time, all the promises of this government are collapsing on the ground of reality.”
Alan Pincus, Israel’s former ambassador and consul general in New York, said of the difficult situation facing Netanyahu: “As things currently stand, the (Iranian) regime is still in place, uranium remains in the country, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is in a stronger position than before and Trump wants out.” “This marks a strategic defeat for Israel, no matter what military achievements it has achieved.
“I don’t really know if Trump cares what happens to Netanyahu,” Pincus said, noting that after Netanyahu reportedly called Trump out on the war, an apparent rift between the two could also be politically helpful for the U.S. president. “He (Trump) wants a deal with Iran and, if Israel loses in this, I think Trump can live with that.”
