El Nino forecasts pointing to the strongest event in a decade are raising concerns about global crop production as farmers also face supply disruptions linked to the Iran war.
Weather agencies in Japan, China and India have warned that El Nino could bring hot and dry conditions across Asia in the second half of 2026.
“We’re already seeing warmer and drier conditions in parts of Australia and India,” Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at Meteomatics, told Reuters.
“The last time we saw similar signals was during the severe El Niño of 2015 to 2016,” he added.
El Nino is an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that can cause drought conditions in Asia and affect global harvests.
In Australia, farmers have already reduced planting after months of low rainfall.
Palm oil production may fall in Southeast Asia.
“A mild episode may cause only limited disruption, but a strong and prolonged El Nino event could lead to a five percent to 12 percent decline in production,” industry official MR Chandran said, according to Reuters.
Fertilizer supplies have also been disrupted as the Iran war has affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, adding further pressure to global food production.
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