Argor-Heraeus CEO Robin Kolvenbach holds one kilo of silver and gold bars at refiner and bar maker Argor-Heraeus’ plant in Mendrisio, Switzerland, on July 13, 2022.
Dennis Balibous | reuters
The rally that has driven gold and silver to record-breaking highs in 2025 could extend again if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached, market watchers told CNBC as prices edged higher on Thursday.
spot gold It jumped 1.2% to $4,750 an ounce early Thursday amid hopes the US and Iran could be nearing a deal to end the 69-day war.
spot gold
silver spot
Both gold and silver enjoyed record-breaking rallies in 2025, rising 66% and 135% respectively during the year. However, they have seen much more volatile trading in 2026, with silver futures in late January suffering their biggest one-day shock since the 1980s and gold falling more than 10% from its January peak.
Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28, gold’s reputation as a “safe haven” asset in times of turmoil has come under pressure as some of the factors behind its rise have been questioned.
According to Ross Norman, CEO of precious metals website Metals Daily, the prospect of higher interest rates, a stronger US dollar as a result of rising oil prices and traders exiting positions contributed to its recent decline, especially as the yellow metal entered a “significantly overbought” conflict.
He told CNBC that this gave dealers a reason to take profits and strengthened the market as traders sold their best-performing assets.
Francis Tan, chief Asia strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, described the asset as “quite useful” during the market turmoil of March in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.
“If you look at March, when equities were selling off, for an investor with some allocation in gold during that period, you were sitting on quite strong returns in gold, and you could probably take some off the table to cover some of your equity losses.
“So gold has certainly played its role as a safe haven.”
During the conflict, gold traded against both oil prices and the US dollar.
“Both the dollar and gold rose, with the dollar seeing hot money inflows as energy supplies tightened, while the greenback saw safe-haven inflows,” Norman said. “The peace agreement shows that the tailwinds will subside and we are seeing that right now. It’s as if the handbrake has been released on gold and silver.”
Where next?
Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, has long held a bullish outlook on gold and silver, and his belief that more upside is to come for the metals has not wavered, even as the precious metals markets continue to be volatile.
He told CNBC on Thursday that he viewed the decline in gold and silver prices as a “consolidation phase.”
“This time, precious metals have shown a stronger correlation with equities. Both have suffered mostly on fears that inflation will push up interest rates,” Gijsels said. “Interest rates in our world are like gravity. When interest rates go up, gravity increases and pulls all assets down, including precious metals.”
As the Iran war escalated – prompting warnings of price shocks and disruption to economic growth – the suspension of monetary easing cycles in various major economies led to market pricing, with some central banks now expected to raise interest rates to offset the impact of increased energy prices.
But after this, optimism reemerged on Wednesday Reports suggest that the US and Iran are close to agreeing on a peace deal. Gijsels said precious metals are now recovering along with equities.
“We expect the secular bull market in gold and silver to resume and the metals to reach new all-time highs in the near future, possibly this year,” he told CNBC.
As the fog of war clears, investors will return to the markets for gold and silver.
Philippe Gijsels
Chief Strategy Officer at BNP Paribas Fortis
Gijsels said Thursday that all the elements that brought gold and silver to this point “are still in place.”
“Central banks and governments will continue to diversify away from US government paper into gold,” he told CNBC. “Since we live in a structurally hyperinflation environment, someone needs to hold real assets. Precious metals are obviously part of that. (And) as soon as the fog of war clears, investors will come back to the markets for gold and silver.”
He argued that the decline in gold and silver prices in recent months “is not the end, but merely a pause, of the strongest and longest-lasting bull market in gold and silver in history.”
Paul Williams, managing director of gold and silver supplier Solomon Global, told CNBC in an email on Thursday that the battle is still difficult to predict, especially for the more volatile silver. But, like Gijsels, he said silver prices are still based on the same fundamental factors that fueled the 2025 rally.
“Physical silver supply remains tight, while green technologies continue to see strong demand,” he said. “The US-Iran conflict has only underlined the strategic case for solar energy. AI-related demand remains significant and growing, putting further pressure on an already stretched supply/demand balance.”
Silver is used for a variety of industrial purposes, and is an essential component in goods ranging from computers and mobile phones to solar panels and cars. While Williams said short-term volatility is likely to persist until a durable agreement is formalized between the US and Iran, he said prices should remain supported in the longer term.
“I expect we may see further bullish conditions ahead as more people seek the security and reassurance of being able to hold physical assets outside the traditional financial system,” he said.
“If a peace deal is signed, silver will benefit most from improving economic sentiment, strong industrial demand, and investors’ greater risk appetite. If negotiations fail, gold will likely lead the initial safe-haven, but silver’s tight physical market means it could catch up very quickly.”
